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Ukraine's priorities: survival first, negotiations later

While Ukraine's main priority is survival here and now, and engaging Russia in peace talks is secondary, Trump's approach is different

Снимка: БГНЕС/ЕРА
ФАКТИ публикува мнения с широк спектър от гледни точки, за да насърчава конструктивни дебати.

Arms supplies and energy security are the two main issues that have once again brought Volodymyr Zelensky to Washington.

The Ukrainian president says he intends to discuss with President Trump the supply of long-range missiles, such as the "Tomahawk", to Ukraine and the strengthening of its air defense capabilities in anticipation of winter and in light of Russian attacks on Ukraine's civilian energy infrastructure, the BBC's Washington correspondent comments.

And while Ukraine's main priority is survival here and now, and engaging Russia in peace talks is secondary, Trump's approach is different.

He promised to end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours. Then he reneged on his word. But the war has become a personal issue. He wants it resolved, and he wants it to happen as soon as possible.

Trump's rhetoric toward Moscow has changed. He has questioned Russia's military might and even suggested that Ukraine might try to take back all the occupied lands, demonstrating that he is no longer ashamed to be tough on Russia. Even the mere mention of the possibility of supplying "Tomahawk" missiles to Ukraine prompted Vladimir Putin to call Donald Trump. This proves that Trump's strategy is working.

Trump believes that his meeting with Zelensky should accelerate the peace process on US terms, which may or may not seem favorable to Ukraine. Zelensky’s job in Washington is to ensure that Ukraine’s national interests are not sacrificed and that the Trump administration does not make a problem of it.

Navigating the turbulent seas of Trump-era politics is no easy task for Ukraine.

America was its number one partner, one that Ukraine could not afford to lose—the U.S. refusal to provide military assistance would sharply reduce Ukraine’s chances of surviving the war.

In the past few months, however, relations between Washington and Kiev have changed. Trump’s once icy tone, harsh remarks, and tough policies toward Ukraine and its leaders have given way to warmer words. American leaders now openly praise the strengths of the Ukrainian military and the resilience of the Ukrainian people.

The United States continues to supply weapons to Ukraine, primarily through sales to European NATO members.

And unlike the Biden administration, Trump has not criticized Kiev’s strikes on oil refineries and other Russian energy infrastructure, which is seen as a tacit approval of Ukraine’s actions.

Today, Donald Trump welcomes Volodymyr Zelensky to the White House for the third time in eight months. Zelensky is one of the few foreign leaders Trump meets with so frequently. In fact, this will be their sixth meeting this year alone, as the leaders have also met at the Vatican for Pope Francis’ funeral, in The Hague for a NATO summit, and in September in New York for the United Nations General Assembly.

Each time, Trump and Zelensky have discussed ways to end the war. While Ukraine was previously seen as the weaker side, forced to withstand both Russian pressure on the front lines and US pressure in negotiations, the situation may have changed.

After his phone call with Putin, Donald Trump said he asked the Russian leader about his position on the possible provision of Tomahawk missiles by the US to Russia's adversary. This is an act of pressure on Russia that the American leader has not taken before.

Trump believes that this should force Putin to agree to real peace talks and a subsequent freeze on the conflict.

The Ukrainian president's next visit to the White House could represent a deeper coordination of actions and a study of vulnerabilities that could convince the Kremlin to end the war.

Volodymyr Zelensky would have gone into this meeting in a better mood if Trump had not spoken to Putin on the phone and had no plans for a quick meeting in Hungary. On the other hand, Trump should not be underestimated; he is already in a slightly different mood than he was in the spring, when he spoke very friendly about Vladimir Putin and very irritable about Volodymyr Zelensky - during the Oval Office.

Over the past year, Trump has begun to understand better that this is not just any conflict, but a very serious war in which a huge number of people are dying. Lately, he has often mentioned that Russia is losing more soldiers than Ukraine, an incredible number on the battlefield. In other words, he is saying that for Russia, too, this war has a huge human dimension. And yet, we cannot help but see that Donald Trump clearly does not want to slam the door in Vladimir Putin's face. Every time he gets close to this point, he backs off a little.

The schedule distributed to journalists suggests that the meeting between Trump and Zelensky will not be as long as the previous two this year, which took place at the White House. It is not yet clear, but there seems to be no guarantee that there will be a traditional press conference - where the two leaders sit in the Oval Office and make comments. It is possible that it will be closed and then it will be announced exactly what was discussed.