When Donald Trump warned European leaders years ago that their dependence on Russian gas would make them "hostages of Moscow", the remark was met with skepticism - and even laughter.
A year into his second term, those same leaders are now racing to secure long-term contracts for American LNG as Russia's once-dominant influence over Europe's energy market is eroding just as Trump predicted, Fox News reported.
Russia's decision to cut off gas supplies in 2022 - an attempt to break Western unity and pressure Europe to abandon Ukraine - had the opposite effect effect.
Its share of the European Union’s gas imports has fallen from 45% in 2021 to below 10% today. American gas now accounts for nearly 57% of Europe’s total imports, compared to roughly a third before the war.
The disruption of supplies has accelerated a historic restructuring of the global energy sector, and American producers of liquefied natural gas (LNG) have rushed to fill the gap. This shift has not only weakened one of Vladimir Putin’s most powerful geopolitical weapons, but has also boosted the growth of American exports, which are tying Europe to Washington more closely than at any time since the Cold War.
This transformation is most visible in Central and Eastern Europe, where countries once dependent on Russian pipelines are turning westward. New corridors connecting LNG terminals in Poland, Greece and Croatia are funneling American and Qatari gas deep into the continent. Countries like Ukraine, Romania and Slovakia – long vulnerable to supply disruptions – are signing deals that would have been unthinkable just a few years ago.
"Central and Eastern Europe has proven to be the most vulnerable, as historically they have been almost 100% dependent on Russian gas," said Aura Sabadus, senior energy analyst at the Center for European Policy Analysis. "We are now seeing companies in these markets securing American LNG through new routes, particularly through Poland and the southern corridors through Greece."
Last week in Athens, executives from major American producers met with regional buyers from Greece, Poland and Ukraine to hammer out new supply agreements—the clearest sign yet that Europe’s energy axis has shifted. American gas now flows through the same infrastructure that once carried Russian fuel, and the geopolitical balance has shifted with it.
For the Kremlin, the losses are mounting. Energy exports once accounted for a third of Russia’s budget, but the loss of its most lucrative market has forced Moscow to sell oil and gas to China and India at deep discounts.
Analysts say the country’s energy sector — once the backbone of its geopolitical power — has become a liability, exposing its dependence on a smaller number of less profitable buyers.
Greece is emerging as a key entry point for American gas. On November 7, Athens signed its first long-term agreement with American exporter Venture Global to import at least 700 million cubic meters per year starting in 2030. The 20-year agreement, backed by DEPA Commercial and Aktor Group, could expand to 2 billion cubic meters per year and allow Greece to re-export gas north through the Balkans to Ukraine.
Poland is also positioning itself as a regional hub. Warsaw is negotiating to import additional volumes of US liquefied natural gas - estimated at up to 5 billion cubic meters per year - for resale to Ukraine and Slovakia. Polish energy group ORLEN recently signed a contract with Ukrainian "Naftogaz" to deliver 140 million cubic meters of US gas via terminals in Swinoujscie and Lithuania's Klaipeda.
Meanwhile, Ukraine is increasingly relying on these routes to compensate for Russian losses and prepare for winter.
Sabadus said the shift in Europe's direction is likely to accelerate as the EU discusses a complete ban on Russian pipeline gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) by 2028. "If this law is adopted and implemented - and if long-term contracts with US suppliers are secured - this will not be just a temporary change," she said. "This will be a structural realignment."
When Trump first issued his warnings, many European leaders ignored them. German officials defended the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, insisting that the trade would keep Russia tied to the West. Now those same governments are scrambling to secure American supplies as U.S. LNG terminals along the Gulf Coast operate at record capacity.
As the United States solidifies its role as Europe’s main gas supplier, Russia’s influence over the continent’s energy market continues to wane. “Russia has been offering big discounts to keep its customers, but as global production increases, it will have limited flexibility to compete,” Sabadus said. “American LNG will become highly competitive in Europe.”
The Trump administration has been quick to seize on this shift. Earlier this year, she lifted a freeze on liquefied natural gas export permits, approved new production projects in Louisiana and Texas, and promoted a U.S.-EU energy deal that commits European buyers to buying hundreds of billions of dollars worth of American energy over the coming decades. Officials point to a series of recent long-term contracts — including Venture Global’s deals with Italy and Germany over the summer, the agreement with Greece announced last week, and the newly signed contract between Spain’s Naturgy and Venture Global — as evidence that the “energy dominance” agenda is working. reshaping global trade flows.
Rob Jennings, vice president of natural gas markets at the American Petroleum Institute, said the policy change had unleashed a wave of investment and confirmed strong demand for U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG).
"In the first nine months of this year, five companies made final investment decisions, representing a total of about 50 million tons of new capacity per year - more than $50 billion in investment," he told Fox News Digital. "This is a really strong signal from the market."
Jennings said the surge in exports is beneficial to both sides of the Atlantic.
"Since 2016, the cumulative contribution of the US LNG industry to GDP has been about $400 billion, and over the next 15 years it could increase by another $1.3 trillion," he said. "At the same time, more than two-thirds of US LNG exports now go to Europe daily, replacing gas that they once bought from Russia."
However, industry representatives warn that regulatory differences could complicate future trade. Jennings pointed to two new European laws - the EU Methane Regulation and the Corporate Sustainability Directive -— which American manufacturers say could impose foreign standards on foreign companies.
"These regulations are effectively an attempt by Europe to impose its own standards globally," he said. "We hope this can be addressed as part of a trade deal because there is a risk that they could undermine Europe's commitment to buying more American energy."
Europe's realignment is far from complete. Regulatory inconsistencies, high transport tariffs and local politics continue to hinder integration in Central and Eastern Europe.
But for now, the combination of abundant U.S. supply and new demand linked to the transition from coal to gas has created what Sabadus called "a good fit."
"We are entering a buyer's market," she said. "There is an abundance of liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply in the US, and new pockets of demand are emerging in Eastern Europe as countries transition from coal to gas."