The massive US strike against Iran sets at least four ambitious military goals, which President Donald Trump outlined in a keynote speech on the issue. Are these goals realistic and what are the prerequisites for this?
With its military actions, the US aims to eliminate Iran's nuclear program, destroy the country's ballistic missiles, as well as its naval forces, and overthrow the regime in Iran. What are the goals and what obstacles stand in their way?
Goal number 1: Iran must not have nuclear weapons
After the 12-day war between Iran and Israel in June 2025, Trump declared that the United States had "destroyed" Iran's central nuclear facilities. Today, however, Washington is pursuing the same goal again.
For Markus Schneider, an analyst at the Friedrich Ebert Foundation (FES) in Beirut, the nuclear issue is just a pretext. "It was already clear in June 2025 that the program had only been slowed down, not permanently stopped. Iran had the necessary expertise. "If Tehran is able to build centrifuges and enrich uranium, it cannot be stopped by air strikes alone," he says.
Goal number 2: Destroy the ballistic missile program
Many experts believe that Iran's ability to launch ballistic missiles is the real danger - significantly greater than the nuclear threat. Last year, Tehran demonstrated that it is able to hit Israeli and American targets in the region with such missiles.
Iranian analyst Shahin Modares told DW: "Production sites, warehouses and supply chains can be affected, as the recent attacks show. But technological know-how cannot be destroyed with bombs." According to him, complete destruction is “unlikely”, but a strong weakening is “possible”.
Goal number 3: Destroying the navy
Achieving this military goal is in principle possible, says expert Markus Schneider, but adds that Iran has numerous small and fast boats – “and this is not something that can be destroyed in a week”.
Experts also draw some historical parallels. Back in 1988, the US inflicted severe damage on the Iranian naval forces with Operation “Praying Mantis”. It is assumed that the US prioritizes freedom of navigation in the region and would justify a large-scale attack if it were threatened by Iran. In this context, the Strait of Hormuz, which is the gateway between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, is of particular importance. A large part of the oil produced in the Middle East is transported through it.
Goal number 4: Topple the Iranian regime
It is not clear how Trump intends to achieve this goal without using ground troops, because this is a goal that is not only military but also political. The current air strikes indicate that the US and Israel are aiming to structurally weaken the regime.
Experts believe that new mass protests in Iran are possible, but only if a drastic event occurs, which they call a “deep systemic collapse“. Many experts interpret Trump's proposal for an amnesty for the Revolutionary Guard as his attempt “to push the elites to separate from power“. However, unless such a drastic change occurs, a spontaneous uprising by Iranians is unlikely.
Sara Karmanian, a researcher at the University of Sussex, shares similar views and tells DW: “This could have serious consequences for the population. A wounded but still intact state authority could react with strong repression – especially if parts of the population are perceived as “supporters of external forces“.