The UAE has been a member of OPEC since 1967, but will leave the organization effective May 1. This decision is a slap in the face for Saudi Arabia, but also a success for Donald Trump. Why did the Emirates take this step?
The news came like a bolt from the blue: The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is leaving the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), as well as the OPEC+ group, effective May 1. And this at a time when the world is already in a severe energy crisis due to the US and Israel's war against Iran, and uncertainty dominates the global economy.
The UAE's state news agency - UAM - points out that this decision reflects "the disruptions in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz". It is also "the fruit of the UAE's long-term strategic and economic vision, as well as the changing energy profile", UAM adds.
A heavy blow for Saudi Arabia
Observers define the UAE's decision as a heavy blow for OPEC and above all for the group's de facto leader - Saudi Arabia.
"This is more of a political message than an economic one", Mark Ayoub, an energy expert at the American "Tahrir" Institute, told ARD. According to him, this is a clear sign that the UAE is not satisfied with the leadership of OPEC. "This is a message to Saudi Arabia and an indicator of the state of relations between the two countries - whether economic or political", the expert adds.
The two Gulf states have serious differences on some key issues, for example in their approach to Iran or the conflicts in Yemen and Sudan, ARD recalls. The fact that a long-standing OPEC member, such as the United Arab Emirates, is now leaving the organization could cause instability and weaken the group of oil-exporting countries.
"This complicates the equation", energy expert Nehad Ismail commented on the Qatari TV "Al Arabi". "This means that a new level of problems is being created around the Strait of Hormuz, Persian Gulf oil and the situation in Iran", he says. From the perspective of the dangerous geopolitical situation in the region, this decision seems very inappropriate, the expert believes.
Economic benefits for the UAE and success for Trump
The United Arab Emirates has been part of the group since 1967, 4 years before the country itself was created. Along with Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, the UAE is considered one of the important players among all 12 member states.
The consequences of the exit are likely to be long-term, explains energy expert Ayoub: "In the short term, this will not have a big impact on the markets, because the Strait of Hormuz is closed. But in the future, when exports normalize, the UAE could provide many barrels to the market without restrictions."
And this will probably please the US - leaving OPEC is considered a success for US President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly criticized the organization. He accuses it of artificially inflating oil prices and thus "robbing" the world. Trump believes that the United States is also being exploited. Against this background, he has tied military support for the Gulf countries to oil prices.
Following Trump's example
The Emirates, which are considered close allies of the United States, have joined the Abraham Accords and normalized their relations with Israel, ARD also points out. This has made the UAE a target for Iran in recent weeks: Dubai and Abu Dhabi have been subjected to massive Iranian drone and missile attacks, which has led to devastating economic consequences for them.
The UAE criticizes its neighbors for not providing them with sufficient support, ARD writes in this regard. This week, the adviser to the UAE president, Anwar Gargash, recalled that back in 2000, the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council signed a joint defense agreement, but now Abu Dhabi and Dubai have only received logistical support.
By leaving OPEC, the United Arab Emirates will likely show once again that they are turning to US President Trump. Their moves follow his style, the German public media notes - without taking into account long-standing allies and international organizations, they are imposing their own interests. Perhaps because they hope to guarantee themselves more reliable protection from the United States.
This is a slap in the face of their immediate and powerful neighbor in the Persian Gulf - Saudi Arabia, summarizes Anna Osius from ARD.