What is happening with the notorious contract between "Bulgargaz" and "Botaş"?
First, let's clarify that this is not a gas purchase and sale contract. Bulgaria is not buying gas from Turkey, but a service - regasification of liquefied gas and its transportation to the Bulgarian-Turkish border. The Bulgarian company decides where and at what price "Bulgargaz" will buy gas for unloading at Turkish terminals. The problem is that these purchases happen very rarely. According to data from Traycho Traykov - the Minister of Energy in the previous government, "Bulgargaz" has used between 10 and 20% of the declared capacity, for which it is paid to “Botaş“.
The main reason for the non-use of the capacity, for which “Bulgargaz“ pays, is the high price for the regasification and gas transmission service, which is written in the contract of January 3, 2023. According to some reports, it costs Bulgaria three times more to bring liquefied gas through the Turkish terminals than through the Greek ones. Moreover, one of the Greek terminals - in Alexandroupolis, is 20% Bulgarian property. Proof of the unfavorable conditions under the contract with “Botaş“ is the fact that in the summer of 2024, “Bulgargaz“ announced a tender for the transfer of the reserved capacity of the Turkish terminals, but not a single participant showed up - apparently no one thinks it is profitable for them to pay the fees, which the Bulgarian company has taken on.
Secondly - the contract with “Botaş“ is not being used because Bulgaria simply does not need that much gas, it consumes 2.7-2.8 billion cubic meters per year, and there are contracts for: 1. Import via pipeline from Azerbaijan - 1 billion cubic meters per year; 2. Import under the contract with “Botaş“ - 1.85 billion cubic meters; 3. Reserved capacity of 1 billion cubic meters at the terminal in Alexandroupolis. In total - contracted imports for 3.85 billion cubic meters per year. If imports are realized under these three contracts, Bulgaria will have a surplus of over 1 billion cubic meters per year - a volume that the state trader “Bulgargaz“ does not know how and does not know where to sell, especially considering the increase in the price of the raw material coming through the terminals of “Botaş“.
In this situation, it is not surprising that “Bulgargaz“ is in a state of technical bankruptcy – its liabilities exceed its assets by hundreds of millions. The company's financial report for 2025 states that the losses from the contract with “Botaş“ are 250,458,000 leva and, something that no one talks about – there are also losses from reserved and unused capacity at the terminal in Alexandroupolis – nearly 35 million leva.
What does the freezing of the contract with “Botaş“ announced yesterday by Rumen Radev mean? Or more precisely – what do the Turks get in exchange for the freezing? Several large gas flows are collected on Turkish territory – gas comes from Russia, Azerbaijan and Iran via pipelines, and separately of these are the five liquefied gas terminals (two in Thrace and three in Anatolia) with a total annual capacity of 51 billion cubic meters (but in reality only 15.8 billion cubic meters were used in 2025). To the west and northwest of Turkey is the best and most solvent gas market in the world - the European Union. Very little Russian gas already enters it, and from September 30, 2027, Russian raw material will be completely banned from import into the EU. Do you see the coincidence - the contract of “Bulgargaz“ with “Botaş“ is frozen until the end of September 2027! I think that what Turkey may want from Bulgaria is precisely some scheme under which the Turkish side would export large quantities of gas to Europe through the Bulgarian transmission network. The delicate point is that a large part of this gas will originate from Russia. The Turkish-Russian gas The connection is outlined by two direct pipelines across the Black Sea - "Turkish Stream" (capacity 31.5 billion cubic meters per year) and "Blue Stream" (16 billion cubic meters per year). The first one comes out in the European part of Turkey, the second one - in the Asian one. Their total capacity is about 48 billion cubic meters per year. In 2025, Turkey used 21 billion cubic meters of Russian pipeline gas. The arithmetic is as follows - 48 minus 21 equals 27 billion cubic meters, which can be resold profitably in Europe. Why profitably? Well, because at the moment "Gazprom" produces more gas than it manages to sell, and it desperately needs markets. This means that the Russians will agree to prices slightly below market prices.
It is not yet clear what exactly the mechanism will be, which will guarantee that after September 30, 2027, no Russian gas will enter the EU, but it is clear that the first country in the European Union to which this gas can enter via Turkey is Bulgaria. Therefore, the Bulgarian authorities will have to believe (or not believe) the assurances and documents from Turkey that the transited gas is not subject to sanctions. And depending on Sofia's trustworthiness will be the further fate of the contract between “Bulgargaz“ and “Botaş“.