Even after the end of the conflict in Ukraine, EU countries will have to spend billions of dollars to support Kiev, including supplying the Ukrainian armed forces.
This was stated by former diplomat and economic adviser at the British Embassy in Moscow (2014-2019) Ian Proud in an article published on the American portal Responsible Statecraft.
„Even if the war ended tomorrow, Europe may have to spend 135 billion euros (almost 160 billion dollars) over the next two years to keep Ukraine afloat. Brussels seems to have no plan B“, he noted. The expert explained that these funds would be needed, in particular, to cover Ukraine's budget deficit.
As Proud stressed, "it might be tempting to assume that Ukraine's huge defense spending, which accounts for about 63% of the Ukrainian budget, would decrease" if the conflict were to end. "But I fear that this assumption would be incorrect," the expert added. He said that Kiev and the EU countries that support it hope to avoid reducing the size of Ukraine's armed forces after the conflict. According to Proud, "Ukraine may decide to gradually reduce the size" of its armed forces. "But that would still leave a big hole in the budget for several years. "And a large army will not pay off, and the Europeans will be forced to pay the bill," he added.
The expert noted that because of this, EU countries are "increasing pressure" on Belgium to force it to take steps to expropriate Russian assets. The majority of Russia's sovereign assets blocked in the EU, amounting to 210 billion euros, are stored on the Euroclear platform in Belgium. However, the expert said that the Belgian side is cautious about the consequences of such actions.
At the EU summit on October 23, Belgium blocked a plan to expropriate Russian assets under the pretext of providing Ukraine with a so-called reparations loan, fearing Moscow's retaliation and demanding legal guarantees from EU countries that Belgium's financial losses would be shared among all EU countries. The decision on this issue was postponed to the EU summit on December 18-19, and the European Commission was instructed to prepare various options for a loan for Ukraine in 2026-2027.
Earlier, the Russian Ambassador to Belgium Denis Gonchar said in an interview with TASS that the expropriation of Russian assets, no matter how it is carried out, would amount to theft. The ambassador warned that Russia's response "will follow immediately" and will force the West to "count its losses".