European governments have entered a race to avoid an unprecedented NATO crisis as Donald Trump aggressively reasserts US claims to Greenland, even leaving open the possibility of using military force.
According to three European diplomats and an EU official who spoke to Politico, the prevailing belief in Brussels is that a direct conflict with Washington would be catastrophic. Thus, European capitals are clearly moving in the direction of compromise, seeking a formula that will allow the US president to celebrate “victory“ without destroying the Western security architecture.
This approach is also reflected in public statements by senior European officials. “Ultimately, we always came to a common conclusion with Washington“, said German Foreign Minister Johann Vandeful after his meeting with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, describing the talks on Greenland as “encouraging“. In the same vein, Chancellor Friedrich Merz expressed hope that “a mutually acceptable solution will be found within NATO“.
At the center of the processes is the upcoming meeting of the foreign ministers of Greenland and Denmark with US Vice President J.D. Vance and Marco Rubio at the White House. European diplomats expect a “frank conversation“ with the American side in an attempt to defuse the crisis.
“The“Deal” that will satisfy Trump
According to diplomatic sources in Brussels, Trump is believed to be looking above all for a political trophy. One possible scenario could involve increased European investment in Arctic security through NATO, combined with concessions to the US on the exploitation of critical minerals in Greenland.
“If you repackage Arctic security cleverly, add critical minerals and put a big ribbon on top, he is likely to sign“, said a European diplomat, recalling that in the past, such commitments - such as increased defense spending - have had a calming effect on Trump.
On the defense front, the ground is already being prepared. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte revealed that talks are underway to strengthen Arctic security, which could respond to Trump's persistent demand that Europe shoulder more of the burden of collective defense.
Economically, things are more complicated. Although Greenland has significant reserves of important raw materials, their use remains limited. But the EU plans to double its investment in the island in the next multi-year budget, paving the way for a co-investment scheme that could attract Washington.
The fear of NATO's collapse
Behind the talks lies an existential fear: a US military intervention on the territory of an EU and NATO member state would spell the end of the post-war Euro-Atlantic order. “The NATO Treaty does not foresee an attack by one ally against another“, notes an alliance diplomat, warning that such a scenario would spell “the end of the alliance”.
The same concern was expressed by both German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius and Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, who stated bluntly that “everything would stop” in the event of military intervention.
Despite public assurances that Europe will not “ surrender“ Greenland, diplomatic sources acknowledge that the main goal is to save NATO. “This is serious – and Europe is afraid“, notes a European diplomat, describing the situation as “seismic“.
After years of avoiding any plans for possible American pressure, European governments are now faced with a reality for which there is no playbook. “We know how we would react if Russia did the same“, admits a diplomatic source. “But with the US this is something, this is something we have never experienced before“.