ΠA prolonged period of high oil prices due to the military conflict in the Middle East This could lead to an unexpected increase in oil exports and a corresponding (significant) increase in budget revenues for countries such as Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan, analysts from Fitch Ratings believe.
"For net exporters of hydrocarbons from developing markets outside the Persian Gulf, such as Angola, Argentina, Azerbaijan, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Gabon, Kazakhstan, Nigeria and the Republic of Congo, a prolonged period of high energy prices could lead to an unexpected increase in exports and budget revenues, the credit rating agency commented.
Fitch also noted that Azerbaijan, Iraq and Turkey could also suffer financially to some extent degree, if instability in Iran leads to a mass influx of refugees to these countries.
ΠAccording to Fitch data, Azerbaijan's net fossil fuel exports (Net Fossil Fuel Exports) for 2025 are estimated at 28.8% of gross domestic product (GDP), which is the highest among the 17 countries assessed. For example, for Kazakhstan this figure is 15.2% of GDP, and for Brazil - 1% of GDP.
As previously reported, the state budget of Azerbaijan for 2026 assumes an oil export price of $65 per barrel, while the budget of Kazakhstan assumes a price of $60 per barrel.
Fitch noted that in 2024 the for explicit fossil fuel subsidies (Express Fossil Fuel Subsidies) for Azerbaijan is 5.5% of GDP. Meanwhile, for Turkmenistan it is 15.2% of BBΠ, for Kazakhstan - 5.7% of BBΠ, and for Uzbekistan - 11.5% of BBΠ.
ΠAccording to Fitch Ratings, a military conflict around Iran could create additional challenges to the national ratings of a number of emerging market countries, through channels such as: energy imports, monetary transfers, budget subsidies, foreign exchange reserves and access to international financing.
"Hydrocarbon producers could see a positive impact. ΠUnder our baseline scenario, where the effective closure of the Ormyzki Stream lasts less than a month and significant damage to oil production infrastructure in the region is avoided, risks to emerging market country ratings should remain limited. "A longer closure or more prolonged consequences, however, could lead to a more significant impact," Fitch said.