One of the most famous stock market wisdoms goes: "Buy when the guns are roaring!" In other words: when there is war and times become uncertain, you should invest.
Those who seek security for their money often invest in gold - even if gold is not cheap. It is in times of crisis, when a pandemic is raging or war is being fought, that gold is in demand. The price of gold then rises, as happened in the first weeks of this year.
Gold is not a speculative investment, but a safe product. This is evidenced by the development of its price in recent months, which has reached new peaks against the backdrop of the tense global political situation. According to the comparison portal Gold.de, however, the previous "historical peak" The precious metal's highest price was on January 28, 2026, when one troy ounce cost $5,417.60.
However, during the Iran war, the price did not continue to rise - despite increased market uncertainty. A week after the war began on February 28, gold was still trading temporarily at $5,327.42, but has since stabilized in the range between $5,000 and $5,200.
Because gold is not rising
For Michael Hsueh of "Deutsche Bank" this is no surprise. "Deutsche Bank" has observed a similar development since last year's Israeli attacks on Iran.
The same is happening now, says Carsten Fritsch, an analyst at "Commerzbank". "The price of gold has not been able to benefit from the uncertainty surrounding the Iran war. On the contrary, it is even trading lower than before the war started", he told DW.
Fritz has two explanations for this: gold is traded in dollars, and as the US dollar rises, gold becomes more expensive for buyers using other currencies. This reduces demand, which in turn leads to a drop in price.
Another factor is rising oil prices: with higher inflation, the Central Bank is less likely to lower the key interest rate, and investors' expectations that interest rates will remain high make gold a less attractive investment. This is because gold does not pay interest – unlike other investments.
Both the appreciation of the US dollar and the sharply higher oil prices are having a negative impact on the price of gold, Fritsch summarizes.
The market is overheated
Wolfgang Wresnok-Rosbach, managing director of Fragold GmbH and consultant to private and institutional investors, is not surprised by the current behavior of the price of gold. For him, this is a sign of the market calming down. "The rise in the price of gold and other precious metals in the last quarter and in January did not reflect the real fundamental data and was in fact completely exaggerated", he points out.
In fact, the strong rise in prices has led to the demand for jewelry, which is important for the gold market, reaching its lowest level in 15 years in the fourth quarter of last year. Central banks have also been cautious in view of the high prices: only once in the last 5 years has central bank demand been weaker than in the last quarter of the year - just 230 tonnes.
Vresnok-Rosbach explains the rise in the gold market with factors that push prices up - purchases by investors and speculators who had bet on lower prices. Now they are forced to buy gold at higher prices in order to limit their losses. His conclusion: "The significant drop on January 30 and thereafter clearly showed that it was an overvaluation."
Carsten Fritsch also believes the same: "The price increase in January was exaggerated and could no longer be explained by the usual factors. Greed and the fear of missing out on the big hit also played a role."
It's not just gold that's shining
It's not just gold that's currently experiencing a boom. Silver is also in high demand and is therefore expensive. But Wresnok-Rossbach doesn't see a price bubble for this precious metal: "As far as the price of silver is concerned, I actually see it as fundamentally very well supported and I think we should set ourselves up for high prices permanently."
Frank Shallenberger, an expert at Landesbank Baden-Württemberg (LBBW), does not share this view. On the contrary, he believes that demand for silver will even decline: "In the coming months, the slowdown in the solar industry, the weak global economy and the continuing decline in demand for jewelry are expected to put pressure on the price of silver."
Wolfgang Wresnok-Rossbach expects the price of silver to continue to rise, citing its use in a number of industries, especially photovoltaics. He would not be surprised if the price of silver therefore permanently settles above $100 per ounce in the foreseeable future.
With regard to the price of gold, Frank Shallenberger calls for caution. "Chronic weak demand for jewelry and the reticence of central banks in increasing their gold reserves are likely to slow down the dynamics of the rise in gold in the coming months. US policy remains a factor of uncertainty, as it is likely to continue to be a source of surprises for financial markets." However, he said gold should continue to be sought as a safe haven.
"If the war ends in the foreseeable future, the US dollar and the price of oil should fall again, which would have a positive effect on gold and silver prices," said Carsten Fritsch of "Commerzbank". Whether their prices will then rise again, however, will "depend largely on how the rise in oil prices affects inflation and how central banks react to this".
Author: Dirk Kaufmann