200,000 liters of kerosene - that's how much fuel is needed to refuel a Jumbo Jet. Because of the war in Iran, fuel prices have risen dramatically. According to the JATA Airlines Association, the price of a barrel of kerosene has doubled since mid-February, ARD writes.
Aviation expert Cord Schellenberg tells the German public media that there is another thing that complicates the situation - kerosene is a specialized product that is not produced in unlimited quantities. "At the same time, there are not many customers for it. This certainly leads to extreme price fluctuations,” says Cord Schellenberg.
Tickets are already more expensive
Some airlines such as "Lufthansa" insure themselves against this type of fluctuation - they negotiate fixed prices for fuel purchase in advance. In the current crisis, this means that for a certain period they can still secure kerosene at more favorable prices, explains ARD. However, "Lufthansa" CEO Carsten Spohr clearly indicated in an interview with CNN a few days ago that a fuel price increase of this magnitude would also lead to higher ticket prices.
The increase in airfares is already a fact. Tourism expert Harald Zeiss believes that the increases will probably not become widespread until autumn or winter. However, a drastic increase is already being observed on long-haul flights to Asia. "Connections to Bangkok, Mumbai and Singapore have become two to five times more expensive because the shorter route through the Persian Gulf is no longer possible and the detours lead to serious additional costs", Zeiss told the German public media.
Airlines such as "Lufthansa", "British Airways" and "Singapore Airlines" have launched additional flights, but they have limited capacity. There is another problem: due to the closed airspace over Iran, Iraq and Ukraine, two narrow corridors have formed on the route between Asia and Europe, which requires significant detours and, accordingly, additional costs on many of the routes.
"There will be no big winner"
Passengers should expect not only higher ticket prices, but also a reduction in the number of flights. Aviation expert Cord Schellenberg predicts that airlines will cut unprofitable routes in the coming months.
"United Airlines” - one of the three major US carriers - has already announced plans to cut flights. The airline's CEO Scott Kirby said that "United” will give up five percent of its planned capacity for this year. Asian airlines such as "Vietnam Airlines” have also responded. Fuel is particularly scarce in the region.
However, the airlines from the Persian Gulf countries - with their hubs in Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Doha - are still the hardest hit by the war. Flights of major carriers such as "Qatar”, "Emirates” and "Etihad” remain severely limited.
According to Cord Schellenberg, it is unlikely that European airlines will benefit from this. "There will be no big winner", he said, quoted by ARD. In such a war, all airlines are affected financially to the same extent. The aviation expert is of the opinion that the Arab airlines are only temporarily weakened. As soon as the situation normalizes, the competitors of the European carriers are expected to return with attractive offers.
Author: Sebastian Schreiber (ARD)