On the night of May 23-24, for the third time in the war in Ukraine, Russia launched the medium-range ballistic missile “Oreshnik“.
The missile hit the area of the city of Bela Tserkva (located about 80 km from Kiev). Due to its high hypersonic speed (about Mach 10) and the lack of specialized anti-missile systems for this class of weapon in Ukraine, the “Oreshnik“ was not intercepted by Ukrainian air defenses.
According to Ukrainian local authorities, the missile hit a garage complex, not a densely populated apartment building or a working enterprise, and direct casualties from this explosion were avoided.
Hours before the attack, Ukrainian intelligence and President Volodymyr Zelensky personally publicly warned that Russia was preparing a massive strike, including the possible use of the “Oreshnik“. The US Embassy in Kiev also issued an emergency warning. This allowed a large part of the population in Kiev and the region to seek refuge in metro stations and bomb shelters before the shelling began.
Western and Ukrainian military analysts indicate that the use of the experimental “Oreshnik“ (based on the RS-26 Rubezh intercontinental missile project) has more of a political and psychological nature for intimidation (the so-called "strategic message") than any real military meaning on the battlefield.
Experts note that the cost of one Oreshnik missile is estimated at nearly $100 million. The fact that such an expensive hypersonic weapon hits garages indicates either problems with precision targeting, or that the Russian command is using it to demonstrate force to Ukraine's allies.
The fact that an expensive experimental missile like Oreshnik hits an ordinary garage cooperative in Bela Tserkva, has caused strong criticism and irony, including among Russian military bloggers.
Russia, of course, did not intend to attack garages, this absurd result is due to a combination of military, technical and strategic reasons, analysts believe.
Problems with the accuracy of the missile
“Oreshnik“ is a modification of Soviet and Russian technologies for intercontinental ballistic missiles (based on the RS-26 “Rubezh“ project). These systems are designed for nuclear strikes, where a deviation of 100-200 meters does not matter due to the scale of the nuclear explosion.
Conventional failure
When the same missile is used with a conventional (non-nuclear) charge, it relies solely on the kinetic energy of the falling blocks and explosive substance. At hypersonic speeds of Mach 10, if the guidance systems (GLONASS or optical sensors) deviate even by a millisecond, the missile misses the military target (for example, a nearby enterprise or warehouse) and falls into the neighboring garage array.
Psychological intimidation, not military effectiveness
The main purpose of the launch is not the destruction of a specific building, but a “strategic message“ (signal) to the West and Ukraine. It is important for the Kremlin to demonstrate that it has a weapon that the Ukrainian air defense (AVO) cannot shoot down, regardless of where it falls.
According to analysts from Defense Express, the strike is entirely demonstrative in nature, similar to previous attempts in Dnieper and Lviv.
Discrepancy between propaganda and reality
The Russian Ministry of Defense officially announced that aircraft repair plants (F-16 and MiG-29) and command posts were hit. However, on-site investigations and videos by Ukrainian journalists (published on platforms such as LIGA.net) showed only burning sheet metal and destroyed private garages. Even the Russian "Z-military vehicles" in Telegram they began to openly mock their command, writing ironically that "500 NATO instructors in garages were destroyed".
A huge economic inefficiency
According to a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Russian analysts are deeply disappointed with the use of the weapon. Launching a missile that costs tens of millions of dollars to produce to set three car garages on fire is defined by experts as a waste of strategic resources to achieve a temporary propaganda effect in the media.