European intelligence agencies are warning of a high probability that Russia will soon attack NATO to test the Alliance's resolve. As The Guardian writes, they believe that such an attack could happen within a few months.
Michal Koudelka, head of the Czech Security and Information Service (BIS), said that in addition to increased drone activity, the Kremlin's plans could include an invasion of NATO countries bordering Russia. "It is possible. The scenario could include a limited invasion, "false flag" provocations or a large-scale influence campaign," he said. He said such a scenario could play out in "months, not years." At the same time, representatives of the three Baltic states bordering Russia are more cautious about the possibility of an invasion or other large-scale escalation. They note that Moscow's resources are stretched by the conflict in Ukraine, and warn that stoking fears of an attack could be to the Kremlin's advantage. "We see no signs of an imminent attack." The question remains: do they have direct and concrete plans, or is this just part of their broader attempts to sow fear and uncertainty in Western society?", said Normunds Mežviets, Director General of the State Security Service of Latvia.
According to Koudelka, the current Russian tactic is based on the principle of "escalation for the sake of de-escalation": The Kremlin seeks to exploit vulnerabilities in Western societies to weaken support for Ukraine's military efforts. "They believe that if they escalate tensions enough, European countries will decide to stop supporting Ukraine," he noted. The intelligence chiefs agreed that regardless of how events unfold, Russia's sabotage campaign in Europe is likely to intensify in the coming months. Thomas Nilsson, head of Sweden's military intelligence and security service, described the recent incident with an armed drone at Leipzig airport - which German authorities have linked to Russian intelligence operations - as a "turning point".
"Sending an armed drone to a busy airport in the heart of Europe... If it leads to attacks that can cause casualties or damage critical infrastructure - with huge consequences for society - then I think it's a game changer," he said. According to Nilsson, the recent increase in Russian sabotage activities has several goals: weakening support for Ukraine, sowing division in NATO and intimidating the European population. Koudelka noted that another consequence of the sabotage campaign is the excessive strain on security services' resources. "Now every fire or malfunction requires investigation by the security services as a potential terrorist act, and that is advantageous for them," he said.