Donald Trump’s defeat in the US midterm elections could change his approach to the war with Iran, relations with Israel and support for Ukraine. Democrats took control of both chambers of Congress and gained new tools to pressure the president, but Trump retains considerable freedom to make foreign-policy decisions.
That is why the key question for Iran, Israel and Ukraine is whether the electoral blow will make the American president more willing to compromise or push him towards tougher action.
Tehran Expects Both Strikes and Diplomacy
Iran viewed the Republicans’ defeat as a sign of discontent with the war, but is not counting on an automatic change in Washington’s policy. Vice President J.D. Vance said that “the reason we lost is the war,” while Trump acknowledged that the price increases triggered by the conflict had affected the result.
Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who has taken part in negotiations with the US, warned: “If the American government betrays the will of its people, our ‘no’ will be accompanied by a nightmare.” Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said that anyone expecting the elections to change American policy is “deeply mistaken.”
The risk of a new escalation remains. According to CNN, Trump has sent contradictory signals about possible new strikes on Iran – he spoke of a powerful attack to some journalists, while telling others that there were no immediate plans for escalation.
Alongside the military threats, diplomacy has also intensified. Tehran has sent representatives to Qatari mediators, who are relaying proposals between Iran and Washington. Before the election, Iran offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days if the US accepted seven of its conditions.
“The war with Iran has become a political albatross around his neck,” said Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group. In his view, Trump faces a choice between a deal he can present as a victory and a new military escalation. Sanam Vakil of Chatham House believes that a temporary agreement on the Strait of Hormuz is more realistic than a comprehensive settlement.
Support for Israel Enters a New Period
Washington has already announced an end to military aid for Israel. Democratic control of Congress is further intensifying concerns in the country, where bipartisan support for Israel in the US is weakening because of the casualties in Gaza and the war with Iran.
“The only bipartisan issue at the moment is criticism of Israel,” said Michael Oren, a former Israeli ambassador to the US. He warned that, in addition to military aid, intelligence sharing and the joint development of systems such as the “Iron Dome” could also be affected.
“We are at the end of an era,” Oren said. Yaakov Katz, the former editor-in-chief of The Jerusalem Post, suggested that arms deals could be blocked, new sanctions imposed and joint economic programs suspended.
Netanyahu is also facing a domestic political crisis. In an election held a week before the US vote, he lost his majority in parliament. The leader of the left-wing Democrats party, Yair Golan, said that Israel had no time to lose and needed to move away from sanctions and international isolation.
Kyiv Prepares for a More Uncertain Washington
Ukraine reacted cautiously to the American result. Serhii Kyslytsya, from President Volodymyr Zelensky’s office, said that the country would develop “genuine, normal and stable relations” with whoever was in power in the US.
Kyiv continues to rely on American weapons, financial assistance, Patriot interceptor missiles and guarantees that Washington stands with Ukraine. After months of tensions, however, the Ukrainian leadership has concluded that it cannot depend entirely on the US.
Trump’s weakening could give Ukraine time, but also increase the risk. According to CNN’s analysis, Vladimir Putin may conclude that he has about a year to seek the best possible outcome for Russia on the battlefield before the 2028 presidential campaign once again pushes Republican policy towards stronger support for Kyiv.
Sources: edition.cnn.com