The Ukrainian army will not be able to go on the counteroffensive at the front until the end of 2024. Military-political analyst Oleksandr Kovalenko made such a forecast, quoted by tsn.ua.
According to the Ukrainian expert, this year the Russian army will mainly direct its offensive actions in the Eastern part of Ukraine, and more specifically the Toretsk agglomeration and Chasov Yar.
Kovalenko also noted that the weather also affects the course of the war. The current heat is in favor of the Ukrainian defenders, says the expert. The Russians are now exhausted, and in the muddy autumn season the conditions will also be in favor of the Ukrainian soldiers, because the Russian armored vehicles will be more difficult to move.
When asked what would be needed for a turning point, Kovalenko pointed to three factors: the exhaustion of the enemy, the inauguration of a new US president and a new level of support for Ukraine. “We need a lot of equipment to start counteroffensive operations in 2025. It is important for us that the new US president understands all this very well and responds adequately to all our requests. Without armor it is impossible to counterattack. For now, we receive (weapons) mainly for defense”, noted Kovalenko.
At the same time, Kovalenko noted that soon, according to his calculations, a mechanized crisis could occur in the Russian army. “Therefore, 2025 may become the most favorable year to initiate offensive actions. In 2025, the exhaustion of the occupiers may reach its peak, the most important thing is to hit the moment, the time and the direction“.