Every square kilometer in Ukraine costs Moscow 99 soldiers, the Institute for the Study of War estimates. At the current pace, Russia will conquer the country in 2256. However, this does not mean that Putin intends to stop.
At the current pace of the offensive, Russia will manage to conquer Ukraine in 2256 at the cost of 101 million victims. This is calculated by Polish military analyst Konrad Muzyka, quoted by "Forbes".
In April 2025, Russian forces managed to occupy about 176 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory. However, they lost 36,600 soldiers who were killed or wounded, as well as 4,800 military vehicles. Ukrainian losses are significantly lower.
99 soldiers per square kilometer
According to the Institute for the Study of War, Russia is losing 99 soldiers per square kilometer. The organization indicates that this year Russia managed to conquer or recapture a total of 1,627 square kilometers in Ukraine and the Kursk region, but at a high cost - 160,000 wounded or killed soldiers.
The area of Ukraine is over 600,000 square kilometers, and 19% of it is currently under Russian occupation. The Kremlin's initial plans to subjugate the neighboring country in just a few days have apparently failed, and the war of attrition has now been waged for more than three years.
Russia has no intention of stopping
To continue waging it, Russia is recruiting 30,000 soldiers per month, the head of US forces in Europe, General Christopher Cavoli, recently announced. In this way, Moscow manages not only to maintain its forces on the ground in Ukraine, but even to increase them.
The large number of mobilized is due to high bonuses and speculation that the war will soon end, explains Janis Kluge of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs to "Forbes". As General Cavoli explains, Russia's economy is military-driven - 40% of the state budget goes to defense, and more and more people are working in weapons production, which has reduced unemployment to 2.4%.
However, to maintain high military spending, President Vladimir Putin was forced to raise taxes last year. "The regime in Russia is not only ready to increase the tax burden on Russians, but also to change the priorities of its economic development," explains Alexander Kolyan, an analyst at the Center for European Policy Analysis in Washington.
According to Cavoli, however, Putin, his ministers and Russian generals are determined to continue the war - even if it expands beyond Ukraine. "The Russian regime has changed its military, economic and social structures to sustain what it describes as a long-term confrontation with the West - systemic changes that illustrate Russia's intention to confront us in the foreseeable future," Cavoli warns. German intelligence has also recently warned that Russia is planning an attack on a NATO country.