According to the most pessimistic forecasts, Ukraine's grain harvest could decrease by 10% to about 51 million tons in 2025 compared to 56.7 million tons in 2024. This was stated by Ukrainian Agriculture Minister Vitaly Koval, quoted by "Reuters".
Ukraine is a world producer of grain and oilseed crops, but the harvest is highly dependent on favorable weather conditions both during the autumn sowing and in the spring months.
Military risks associated with the ongoing Russian invasion are also reducing production, as farmers are afraid or unable to plant and harvest. Significant areas have been seized or mined.
"We are facing a difficult season. An unusually warm winter, first there was no humidity, then prolonged rains delayed the sowing campaign in some areas by two weeks. Therefore, we expect a decrease in the harvest," Koval pointed out.
"The most negative forecast is minus 10%. According to expectations, the grain harvest is minus 10%, oilseeds minus 5%. It is definitely not a failure, but God willing, we will harvest everything," he noted.
Giving the first detailed forecast, Koval said that for 2025 Ukraine could harvest about 26 million tons of corn, 4.5 million tons of barley, 1.5 million tons of small grains, 11.5 million tons of sunflower seeds and 11 million tons of sugar beet.
According to him, the wheat harvest could be between 20 and 22 million tons, and the final figure will depend on weather conditions and factors related to the war.
Koval indicated that the total oilseed harvest for 2025 could fall to around 20.16 million tonnes from 21.18 million tonnes in 2024, partly due to a 600,000-tonne reduction in the rapeseed harvest.
Ukraine is the world's largest exporter of sunflower oil.
The minister declined to provide a forecast for Ukraine's grain exports for 2025/26 due to the still-unclear final harvest figure. However, analysts say exports will total 40.9 million tonnes, including up to 15.5 million tonnes of wheat.
Analyst ASAP Agri said last week that Ukraine's wheat exports are expected to decline in the July-June 2025/26 season. due to possible changes in EU import policy, uncertain harvest prospects and better harvest prospects in EU importing countries.