The richest man in the world apparently has an idea for a new startup: a political party. The relationship between Elon Musk and Donald Trump is deteriorating progressively - Musk continues to publicly oppose the "big beautiful law" on taxes and government spending quite fiercely. According to the billionaire, this law erases all his work in Washington. Musk even threatened Republicans who vote in favor of the new law that he will nominate his own candidates against them in the 2026 midterm elections. But his other warning is more curious. Musk said that if the law is passed, he would immediately create his own party to “give people a voice.”
A truly competitive new party in the United States could end the dominance of the Democrats and Republicans. The Libertarian Party, founded in 1971, is the third largest political party in the country. The party’s best performance in a presidential election was in 2016, when its candidate Gary Johnson won 3.27% of the vote. That’s still a far cry from the tens of millions of votes needed to win the presidency or even the governorship. The Green Party has also existed for years, but like the Libertarians, its candidates are not represented in government.
Engagement with people's discontent, but also money
The American political system is built on the principle of “winner takes all” - the candidate with the most votes wins. This is almost always a candidate of either the Republican or the Democratic Party. There are other factors that complicate the potential success of a third party, believes Bernard Tamas, a political scientist at Valdosta University in the US.
According to Tamas, it would be of fundamental importance for a possible third party to engage with people's discontent and build a movement from there. “One of the biggest problems with the parties that have emerged so far is that they don't engage with that discontent,” says the political scientist. Instead, these parties are “vaguely messaged and not focused on the desire for change.”
Attracting ordinary people is important. But so is money. Parties spend billions of dollars on their candidates’ campaigns. According to OpenSecrets, a political donation tracking portal, nearly $16 billion was spent on all campaigns in 2024. Musk himself was the largest donor, giving more than $291 million to support Republicans in all races.
These funds sponsor advertising campaigns and materials that reach people and potentially win their support. This, of course, does not guarantee victory for any candidate - Democrats spent more than Republicans in 2024. But it is still a factor of great importance. “A third party will never have enough money to compete with the Republican or Democratic Party”, Tamas predicts.
Like a bee that stings and then dies
Instead of winning representation in the executive branch, parties outside the two majors in the US can do something else. According to political scientist Tamas, they are like bees that sting and then die. “They appear quickly, nominate several candidates in the country and cause big problems for at least one of the two major parties”, Tamas explains. “In general terms - they take away their votes”.
The so-called “screw-up effect” is expressed in exactly this - protest candidates create an outflow of votes from ideologically similar circles of the major parties. In some cases, they attract enough support to knock the expected winner out of first place and take away the victory.
The fear of this effect forces Democrats and Republicans to change their policies to appeal to voters who are inclined to vote for other candidates. But even the most successful new parties in the United States last only about a decade. When they become too much of a threat, the main parties start stealing their messages and ideology,” explains Tamas.
Do Americans want a new party?
Not all Americans are happy with what is being offered to them politically. Donald Trump's approval rating is poor - the latest polls by the YouGov polling agency show that three out of five Americans disapprove of the president. A 2022 study by the “Pew” showed that there is support in American society for more parties in the political system.
However, this does not mean that such a party will succeed. A 2024 study shows that Republican or Democratic voters who are dissatisfied with what their party is doing for them are very unlikely to vote for a candidate from a centrist alternative party.
The fastest path to success is for such a party’s messages to be directly related to people’s dissatisfaction with the status quo, says political scientist Tamas. Musk could take a cue from the “Fight the Oligarchy” movement of his left-wing opponents Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Bernie Sanders, currently touring the country. Or from the original MAGA movement, which did the same. “These are good examples. They force the major parties to respond to the threat by threatening the careers of established politicians.”
Author: Matthew Ward Ages