Vladimir Putin still hopes that in the coming months he will be able to break through the front and seize the Donbas, Zaporizhia and Kherson regions. Ukrainian general and former head of the Foreign Intelligence Service (2005-2010) Mykola Malomuzh explained to FREEDOM TV why this will not happen.
There are three main reasons. The first is the lack of well-trained military personnel in the Russian army. “The training that is being carried out is very poor. In order to have effective breakthrough groups, especially those that operate successfully, it takes at least six months or more“, the analyst noted.
The second component is surprise, the expert said. “This is not World War II. Now everything is visible, starting from space reconnaissance, ending with reconnaissance with drones and agents in the enemy's rear and on the battlefield. Therefore, any breakthrough movements will be noticed. It is impossible to move even a few small groups so that they are not filmed by technical or other means. Therefore, we will know what is being prepared“, said Mykola Malomuzh.
And the third component of a successful offensive is a sufficient amount of new equipment, weapons, drones and missile systems. “This is what the enemy lacks at the moment. Russia will not be able to maintain a very active offensive operation in any sector. Well, that is why now we are quickly reacting to any maneuvers, moving our units and, of course, strengthening long-range weapons“, the expert concluded.
According to Ukrainian and Western experts, Russia hopes to seize more territories this summer with a major offensive in order to have better negotiating positions. The Russian army is advancing on the front, but extremely slowly and with huge casualties. Analysts are nevertheless adamant that Putin will not stop the war - he has staked everything on it.