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ISW: Russia blocks peace process with unchanged demands

Russia insists on security guarantees, West monitors hybrid actions and energy problems

Снимкa: БГНЕС

The Russian Foreign Ministry continues to emphasize President Vladimir Putin's refusal to meet with his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky on the schedule proposed by former US President Donald Trump, News.bg reports.

On August 22, Moscow rejected Western media accusations that Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov was undermining the peace process with his latest statements, including on the issue of Western security guarantees for Ukraine, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports.

Lavrov said that any negotiations on Western guarantees that do not take into account Russia's “legitimate concerns“ are “a road to nowhere“. Russia supports only collective security guarantees that are "truly credible," citing its demands presented to Ukraine during the 2022 talks in Istanbul. These include a ban on joining NATO, restrictions on the Ukrainian military, and a ban on Western military aid, without imposing restrictions on Russian forces.

On August 22, Trump said he would study Russia and Ukraine's positions on peace talks "in the next two weeks" and decide whether to impose "large-scale sanctions and tariffs." He noted that he had informed Putin that he was not pleased with Russia's strike on the American electronics company Flex in Mukachevo, Transcarpathia, causing a massive fire and injuring at least 19 employees.

Long-range Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries, Western sanctions and difficulties in modernizing refineries are weighing on oil revenues. Kommersant reported on August 21 that Russia is on the brink of a gasoline crisis as wholesale prices have risen sharply and production has fallen by nearly 10% since the start of 2025. The Kremlin relies on oil revenues to finance the war, and its inability to deal with the energy sector challenges claims of long-term sustainability.

Meanwhile, Russia has escalated its hybrid campaign against NATO countries along its western border, including jamming and spoofing GPS signals. Bloomberg reported that the Baltic states, Finland, Poland and Sweden have expressed concern to international transport organizations about the sharp increase in jamming and electronic warfare. An Estonian regulator noted that 85% of flights in the country are affected by signal disruptions, and Lithuania reported a 22-fold increase in GPS jamming incidents since July 2024.

A former Russian serviceman confirmed ISW’s observations that Russian commanders actively order or allow executions of Ukrainian prisoners of war. The independent Belarusian newspaper Vot Tak published an interview with a serviceman from the “Somali” battalion, who recounted the execution of five prisoners in occupied Karlivka in May 2024. ISW noted a sharp increase in credible reports of such cases in 2024 and 2025.