Every third civil aircraft in the EU may not take off due to the fuel crisis in the aviation industry, which began due to the worsening situation in the Middle East.
"If earlier airlines reduced flights mainly due to the high price of kerosene, now the reductions may occur due to its physical shortage. And we are talking about much larger volumes. If the European Union does not receive at least 30% of fuel from the previous level of consumption, then every third aircraft will actually not fly. And this is a huge blow not only for the aviation market," says aviation expert Roman Gusarov.
Opening the Strait of Hormuz will not immediately correct the current situation. "Even if we imagine that the Strait of Hormuz opens today and supplies are fully restored, the fuel will still not appear immediately. It will take months to compensate for the deficit that has already arisen. Therefore, the crisis has already begun. And even in a favorable scenario, its consequences will be felt at least until the fall," the expert emphasized.
Gusarov also noted that the European market, as well as the Southeast Asian region, which also does not have enough domestic production, will suffer the most in the current situation. At the same time, according to him, the crisis should not affect Russia. "Russia will suffer much less than many other countries. At least because we can provide ourselves with fuel in the necessary volumes. Air traffic in the country will continue to operate stably. But certain difficulties are possible on international routes," he added.