The reserves of gas in European storages may not be enough for the winter in case of unforeseen circumstances, including a sharp cold snap or stoppage of fuel supplies from Russia, according to a material of ag. Bloomberg.
Gas storage facilities in Europe are now almost 90% full, more than two months ahead of schedule. And these reserves should be sufficient, but only if “something unexpected happens”, Bloomberg explains. The agency noted that a significant portion of the reserves remained from last winter due to the fact that warming occurred earlier than expected. In the same season, the situation may turn out to be exactly the opposite, and in the event of an unexpected cold snap in Europe, there will not be enough gas.
In addition, this year Europe does not have the same impressive reserves of liquefied natural gas (LNG), which in 2023 filled tankers off the coast of European countries and served as an additional source of energy. Europe's LNG imports fell 15-20% this summer compared to the previous 2 years as Asian countries agreed to buy it at prices more favorable to suppliers.
Another factor that could lead to gas shortages in Europe are fuel supplies from the Russian Federation, the agency claims. In December 2024, the agreement under which Russia exports gas to some EU countries, including Hungary, through Ukraine expires. If it is not extended, the energy supply situation in these countries will worsen.
Gas prices in Europe are significantly lower than they were in 2022, but still almost double what they were before the conflict in Ukraine. This proves that European countries have not yet managed to cope with the energy crisis. If circumstances develop favorably and Europe still has enough gas, prices may decline by the end of December. If now the price of gas in the TTF hub in the Netherlands is around EUR 40 per megawatt hour, it may drop to EUR 25 per megawatt hour by the end of the year. But for now there are no guarantees about that.
The agreement to transit Russian gas through Ukrainian territory expires at the end of 2024. In July, Ukrainian Energy Minister Herman Galushchenko said it was unlikely to be extended. This decision caused concern in a number of countries, in particular Hungary, for which Russia remains the main supplier of gas. Marko Shevchenko, Ukraine's ambassador to Moldova, which will lose cheap electricity if the contract is not renewed, suggested that Kiev could discuss agreements with consumers of Russian gas if they want to buy it and decide it can transit through Ukraine.