The new formation, led by the current president Rumen Radev, would receive the support of 25.6% of the votes if the elections were held today. GERB-SDF is the second political force with 15.4%. They are followed by the PP-DB coalition - with 12.5%, DPS - New Beginning - with 10.5% and "Vazrazhdane" - by 4.5%.
Below the 4 percent barrier remain MECH, BSP - United Left, "Velicie", ITN and Ahmed Dogan's APS.
The "Zhelyazkov" cabinet was moving on the second-highest level of trust. Stable positioning for the government until the summer, then we saw a decline. This was stated to bTV by sociologist Dobromir Zhivkov, who presented the new sociological survey by "Market Links".
An important observation from the survey is the fact that the main share of supporters of Rumen Radev's new party is formed by migration from the political forces represented in the still functioning National Assembly (15%).
The second pillar is made up of new voters who did not participate in the last elections in October 2024. The third represents those who voted for small formations, as well as those who do not support anyone.
In the absence of a sufficiently clear value positioning of Radev's new formation, it seems that this is a matter of spillover of a punitive and anti-systemic vote. This is confirmed by the apparent receptiveness of Rumen Radev's supporters to Eurosceptic and pro-Kremlin positions, which makes the profile of his supporters overlap with that of the supporters and voters of Vazrazhdane and Velichie.
In a situation of expected significant electoral shifts, the ratings of the main political leaders show a tendency towards sharper changes. But while the representatives of the formations in the 51st parliament remain with confidence in the narrow range of 8 to 16%, the confidence in Rumen Radev after leaving the presidential post not only does not shrink, but also increases by 6-7 points, while the share of those declaring that they have no confidence decreases by 9%. This development marks Radev's broad majority potential, of which he manages to mobilize only half.
MECH, BSP - United Left remain below the 4 percent barrier. Velichie, ITN and APS of Ahmed Dogan.
Although with still low mobilization, the possibility of the formation led by Radev being the first political force after the elections is clearly visible. The study makes it clear that the fragmentation of parties in the next parliament may decrease and it may be composed of at least 4, but not more than 6 formations.
The new chairman of the Socialist Party Krum Zarkov enjoys the trust of almost three times as many citizens (11%), unlike Atanas Zafirov, who is leaving office with only 4%.
After a series of election campaigns with very and even record low levels of voter turnout, a significantly different picture is already emerging, which shows that there is a chance of repeating the result of April 2021. Currently, 56% declare a firm willingness to participate in the early elections, and there is also an additional reserve from which, although difficult, it is not ruled out that more voters will be attracted.
A reduction in the number of polling stations outside the country and the EU, which has already been vetoed by the president, would have the opposite effect. Yotova.
Research fact sheet:
The "Market Links" survey was conducted between February 7 and 13, 2026 among 1,019 people over 18 in the country through a face-to-face interview and an online survey. It was funded and implemented jointly by bTV and "Market Links".