It will be necessary for DPS to be an official partner in the next office. The difference between GERB and PP-DB - less than 10%. The first three parties - GERB, PP-DB and DPS will hardly gather a majority to change the constitution - 160 deputies.
This shows a study by the Center for Analytics and Marketing. The sociologist Yuliy Pavlov summarized the data.
First in the survey are GERB-SDS, followed by PP-DB, which are ahead of DPS by about 1.5%. DPS are "just before" "Revival", followed by BSP and "There is such a people".
"It will be very difficult to get a two-party coalition. At average values, GERB-SDS and PP-DB will have 73 and 46 deputies, respectively - a total of 119. If one of the two political forces reaches its upper limit, a two-component assembly will still be possible. 121-122 deputies, however, would not be a sufficient basis for governance. If by chance a seventh power enters the parliament, these values will be reduced. Then it will definitely not be possible to have a two-component government", explained Pavlov.
In his words, it is very possible that the first three political forces will not have 160 people's representatives this time.
"They'll be somewhere around, but it's very possible they'll fall below that. The picture will not improve, forming a government will be more difficult. It is quite possible that DPS will have to be an official partner, not just a supporter, which will create problems for the PP-DB," the sociologist predicts.
"At GRAO, we have about 8 million and 200,000 Bulgarian citizens registered - people who have an EGN, regardless of where they are in the world. About 6 million and 800,000 of them have voting rights. We expect between 2 million and 500,000 and 2 million and 700,000 people to vote - the same as last time or slightly less. A little under 40% as a percentage of the voter lists," Pavlov summarized.
"A high rating does not guarantee a high election result. There is no politician who has a positive rating, for whom trust dominates distrust. There is a higher distrust than trust in all. It's been a long time. Most leading politicians are trusted below 20%. Those with confidence above 20% are counted on the fingers of one hand. With institutions, the picture is not much better in terms of trust. Only the army has positive trust - 52% trust, 27% mistrust. Distrust of the Prosecutor's Office is at its highest," summarized Yuliy Pavlov.
A negative assessment of the assembly government dominates. 27.5% of the respondents believe that the Denkov-Gabriel government has handled the country's governance "successfully" or "rather successful". "Rather failed" and "didn't manage at all" 68% of respondents chose.
17% transfer the main responsibility for the failed rotation to GERB, 24% - to PP-DB. "Nearly half of Bulgarian citizens and more than half with an opinion say that both political forces are responsible," the sociologist summarized.
The respondents define Glavchev's official government as "unsuccessful". "There is a very high non-response rate. Nearly 1/3 of the people have no opinion, at the expense of the Denkov-Gabriel government, where this percentage is 4", the sociologist reported.
FISH
*The survey was conducted between May 31st and June 4th of this year. 820 adult citizens were surveyed. 1% of respondents corresponds to about 53,000 people. A two-stage sample was used with a quota principle for the selection of respondents. Direct standardized "face to face" interviews were conducted. The maximum allowable error for 50% shares is 3.5%, with this probable statistical error decreasing for smaller shares. For small batches: below 3-4%, the possible error is of the same order, completely commensurate with the measurement value itself.