Days before the 2 in 1 elections, GERB emerged as the sole leader with a 10% lead. A photo finish will decide who will win second place in the battle for the National Assembly and the European Parliament.
This is clear from the survey of "Gallup International Balkan" for the Bulgarian National Radio. It covers 1,003 adult Bulgarians in a representative sample and was conducted through a "face-to-face" interview with tablets between May 29 and June 4. The survey cannot be an automatic prediction of the election result, but is still a snapshot before the final days, sociologists comment.
- GERB-SDS would have 25.9% of the votes
- PP-DB – 15.7%*
- "Revival" – 15.5%*
- DPS – 15.3%.*
- BSP would have 8%
- ITN – 6.1%.
*At this stage it is difficult to determine who would actually finish second and third.
In a relatively comfortable position even to attack the "bar" for entering the National Assembly are "Solidary Bulgaria" with 3.1% and "Blue Bulgaria" by 2.8%.
Hard to predict will be the result of "Greatness" – so far with 1.7%. In the battle for percentage are VMRO with 1.3%, "Bulgarian Rise" – 1.1% and "The Left!" – on the very edge of 1%.
"The arrangement within these narrow frameworks is, of course, a matter of multiple factors and possible surprises. Without being ranked below the one percent threshold, but with good prospects of aiming for it, now are formations such as those of Vasil Bozhkov, of Radostin Vassilev, such as "Green Movement", the formation of Ivan Geshev and others", they add from " Gallup".
For the European Parliament, as can be expected, the declarative shares of the votes cast for parties, coalitions and candidates are very similar to those for the elections to the National Assembly, but there are also certain differences.
p>- GERB-SDS would take 25.7% of the votes
- PP-DB – 15.9%, "Revival" – 15.4%
- DPS – 14.9%
- BSP – 7.9%
Just on the verge of jumping the barrier for representation in the EP is ITN with 5.9%.
Far behind are "Solidary Bulgaria" – with 3%, "Blue Bulgaria" – 2.6%, etc.
At the beginning of June, the certainty of voting for the National Assembly, according to the respondents' declarations, was 40.2%. Of all voters, 3.5% said they would vote with "I support no one".
For the European elections, the declaration activity is expectedly lower – 37.7%, taking into account the nuances in the electoral lists, the uncertainty of how much the declarative activity will be reproduced on the ground and how the national elections will attract activity for the European ones. 3.1% declare a firm intention to vote with "I support no one" in the European Parliament elections.
Research sheet
The data is from "Gallup International Balkan" for the Bulgarian National Radio. The research was conducted between May 29 and June 4, 2024 among 1,003 people using the face-to-face method. with tablets. The two-stage nested sample is representative of the adult population of the country. The maximum standard deviation is +3.1% at 50 percent shares. 1% of the entire sample is equal to about 54 thousand people.
.