Six formations will certainly enter the next National Assembly. GERB remains the leader, and the second, third and fourth places are unclear in the elections as a whole. Sociologists do not consider a serious dynamic between the support for the parties in the parliamentary elections and that for the European Parliament. The pre-election campaign did not bring serious dynamics to the electoral attitudes and did not manage to solve the main intrigue of the upcoming elections – the battle for second and third place.
This is according to a study by research center “Trend” sent to the media.
GERB maintains its leading position with 26.5%. "We continue the change-Democratic Bulgaria" are fighting for the second place. (PP-DB) with 15.3%, followed by “Vazrazhdane” with 15.1% and DPS with 14.9%. The differences are within statistical error and the order of the elections could have been different.
BSP maintains its fifth position with 8.5% of the voters, and “There is such a people” (ITN) brings them closer with 5.9% of those who said they will vote in the upcoming parliamentary elections.
Close to the parliamentary barrier and with a chance for parliamentary representation remains “Solidary Bulgaria” with 3.4%. "Blue Bulgaria" received support of 2.1%, followed by VMRO with 1.4%, "Levitsa" with 1.3% and “Bulgarian rise with 1.1%.
The option “I do not support anyone“ collects 4.4%, but the result does not participate in the distribution.
However, due to the negligible distance between the second, third and fourth, from “Trend” they cannot rule out a different arrangement for the vote for the National Assembly and that for the European Parliament. A slightly stronger result is expected for the PP-DB in the European elections, and the BSP will perform nearly half a percent weaker in them.
According to sociologists, the voter turnout in the upcoming early parliamentary elections will not differ significantly from that of the last vote for the National Assembly. A total of 48% of adult Bulgarians living on the territory of the country declare that they will exercise their right to vote, the analysts point out. This makes the expected turnout for the parliamentary elections between 2 million and 500 thousand and 2 million and 700 thousand. From “Trend“ pointed out that the interest in the elections for the European Parliament is less and the turnout will be between 2 million and 300 thousand and 2 million and 450 thousand.
Survey sheet
The study of “Trend“ is commissioned by "Nova Broadcasting Group" and “24 hours", dedicated to the electoral attitudes of Bulgarians before the elections for the National Assembly and the European Parliament. The research was carried out between May 29 and June 4, 2024 through a direct semi-standardized face-to-face interview. with a tablet among 1007 people aged 18+.