If the elections were at the beginning of August, the results would probably be as follows: GERB-SDS would have 25.2% of the votes, PP-DB – 15.2%, DPS – 14.5%, “Revival“ – 14.2%.
At this stage it is difficult to determine who would actually finish second, third or fourth.
This is shown by a BNT “Gallup International Balkan“ study.
The ambiguity of appearance in the different formations and the disintegration processes further complicate the picture and show a certain overall vacillation in the DPS electoral body.
A sociological experiment with a direct question of choosing between formations of Ahmed Dogan and Delyan Peevski gives almost unanimous support among the electoral segment for Ahmed Dogan. However, as a rule, the electoral process is also subject to pragmatic factors or hidden votes, which are difficult to capture in the polling situation.
BSP would have 7.3%, and with them it is not clear whether and how the processes of internal contradictions, as well as external consolidation, will be affected. The showcard experiment shows that a new merger does not appreciably affect potential outcomes.
ITNs currently have 6.2%. In a relatively comfortable position to attack the “bar“ are “Majesty“ with 3.6%, who suffer visible damage from the situation, as well as MECH with 3.4%, who are clearly strengthening.
It is not possible to say in August which formation performs better, and it is difficult to calculate the fault in the environments of “Greatness”. A direct question shows that the potential around Mihailov is higher than that of Markov.
At the beginning of August, the certainty of voting for the National Assembly was 28.4%, according to the respondents' declarations. Of all voters, 2.5% are expected to vote with “I do not support anyone”, taking into account the nuances arising from the fact that August is not the most convenient month for a demoscopic picture, the ambiguity of electoral lists, the uncertainty in which direction the declarative activity will affect the field itself, etc.
The data are from a survey by “Gallup International Balkan“ for the Bulgarian National Television. It covers 802 adult Bulgarians in a representative sample and was conducted through a face-to-face interview. with tablets between August 1 and 9. The poll is not a forecast of an election result, but a snapshot at the beginning of August.