< p>The situation at the front is dynamic, military operations are expanding. Three scenarios are emerging for the war in Ukraine, the first being that Ukraine continues its offensive in the Kursk region. This would happen if the US delivered JSSM long-range missiles, with a range of 450-500 km. This scenario will depend on the weapons Ukraine receives and whether it is allowed to use them to their full potential.
This is what he said about "Focus" the international analyst Assoc. Iskren Ivanov.
According to Associate Professor Iskren Ivanov, if the West allows Kiev to use long-range missiles against Russian targets, it will mean that NATO is entering a war with Russia. “There have been such statements from Russia for a long time, and it depends on what the nature of these strikes will be. The distance from the perimeter in which the Ukrainian troops are located to Moscow is exactly about 500 km, which is why a key meeting between the Americans and the British was scheduled. "Biden is a supporter of giving Ukraine the opportunity to use its weapons, while the British are still hesitating, and Europe is completely against such a scenario," noted Assoc. Ivanov.
He does not consider that the West is monolithic in its attitude towards Ukraine, but that we see two factions in it. “One is the European faction around which Germany, France, larger European countries and smaller countries economically close to China gravitate, which are against Ukraine striking deep into Russia. They believe that Russia's war against Ukraine can be resolved through dialogue. The other pole is the USA, Britain, Denmark, who believe that there should be no dialogue with Russia and at some point Ukraine should win this war. The Ukrainians themselves see the victory at the front in different ways - some see it as the restoration of the occupied territories, others see it as the recapture of more territories. "We can hardly talk about monolithicity, unity in the Western camp", Assoc. Iskren Ivanov stressed.
"There are reasons to look at the use of tactical nuclear weapons in this conflict if the West continues to increase its military involvement in the war. The fact that such statements came from the highest level in Washington, specifically from CIA Director William Burns. The danger of this is less than in 2022, when Russia was on the verge of using a tactical nuclear weapon, but it is significantly greater than last year, when Russia was able to significantly strengthen its advantage on the front. Given that the NATO allies do not rule out this option, it would be extremely unpragmatic for us to turn a blind eye to it as well", explained Associate Professor Iskren Ivanov.
“For the Ukrainian army, the two main challenges are that there is no consensus in the West on whether Ukraine should use its weapons to their full capacity. A second problem is regarding the coming winter, if Russia returns to the tactics of the Russian winter, it is possible to realize an unfavorable scenario for Ukraine, namely a counter-offensive in the Kursk region, the recapture of the Kursk region, progress in the occupied territories. Winter will be a critical period for this. And as for Russia, the big problem there is that the country is currently in a state of demographic collapse, we don't know what Putin's new policies are for army recruitment.
News came out today that he's increasing it by another 180,000 people, whether it's regular military personnel, etc. And the second issue is the relationship between Russia and China. China reiterated that a red line in these relations would be the use of tactical nuclear weapons. With this nuclear rhetoric, at some point, Russia can isolate itself and its ally will remain North Korea, for which China also has a negative attitude along the lines of its nuclear program, which, as we have seen recently, is not small at all. said Prof. Iskren Ivanov.
In the words of the international analyst, the geopolitical map of Europe has changed sharply due to Russia's actions in Ukraine. "The fact remains that there will be no lasting peace and no lasting agreement on the status quo in Eastern Europe until Washington and Moscow agree on what that should look like. A second scenario is that Russia does not play its cards right, trusts too much in its nuclear arsenal and things end up like in the 19th century with the Crimean War. When England and France sided with Turkey and Russia lost this war. A lot depends on Russia's actions, at one point based solely on this nuclear rhetoric to lose the few friends it has at this stage", concluded Associate Professor Iskren Ivanov.