If the elections were today, six parties would enter the 51st Parliament. “There is such a people” and “Majesty“ remain below the line and do not cross the 4 percent barrier. This is according to a study by the sociological agency "Market LINKS".
The national survey was financed and realized jointly by bTV and “Market LINKS“, conducted among 1011 persons over 18 years of age in the country in the period September 25 - October 1, 2024, using the methods of direct personal interview and online survey.
Here are which parties would enter the new parliament and what is the support for them:
- GERB-SDS - 23.1%
- „We continue the change-Democratic Bulgaria” - 14.1%
- „Revival“ - 13.3%
- “Alliance for Rights and Freedoms“ - 8.4%
- ”DPS - New beginning” - 6.4%
- „BSP - United Left“ - 5.4%
According to the study “There is such a people“ and “Majesty“ they don't cross the 4 percent barrier, but that could change.
According to sociologist Dobromir Zhivkov, about 20-25% of Bulgarians decide who to vote for in the last week before elections, and about 18-20% steadily decide in the last two days.
„Such type of political formations with a more nationalist character, such as “Revival” managed to mobilize in the last days before the vote a part of these wavering Bulgarian citizens who go and decide at the last moment. All parties that are around the 4% limit have a real chance to enter, but also to stay below the line”, Zhivkov said.
Electoral mobilization
37% of those polled say they will vote in the early parliamentary elections on October 27, while 23% are more likely to do so. 17% do not know, and 7% answer - “rather not”. 16% categorically say they will not vote.
According to the sociologist, GERB-SDS will hardly achieve higher support than that of the June 9 elections. Their result is expected to be similar or even slightly lower.
The study shows that the “Alliance for Rights and Freedoms“ leads to "DPS-New Beginning". According to Dobromir Zhivkov, serious dynamics are expected with them, with both coalitions moving around the DPS result of the last vote.
„There is no demobilization, maybe even over-mobilization in the previous electorate, but divided now between these two formations. At “DPS-New beginning“ there is still no sign of serious mobilization. This division unsettles some of them, but we see that the ethnic element serves as a glue much more for the sympathizers of the “Alliance for Rights and Freedoms”, said Dobromir Zhivkov.
In his words, the arrest of Ceyhan Ibryamov will have a mobilizing effect for the supporters of the “Alliance for Rights and Freedoms”.
„They are betting on the role of the victim and the clashes that unfolded in front of the Boyanski Sarai, etc. Indeed, this is the role that the Alliance will play. There may be fear in places, because it shows that the state and the institutions are reacting in the same direction. However, the opposite effect is more likely and more voters will support Ahmed Dogan's faction, the sociologist added.
What are the expectations for a controlled vote?
Pressure is expected in places among the voters of the “Alliance for Rights and Freedoms” and “Revival“, Market LINKS survey shows.
Reflection of the bought and controlled vote on voting attitudes
According to the attitudes of Bulgarian citizens, a significant share of bought votes is again expected in these elections, and this phenomenon leads to the demobilization of their desire to vote.
According to Dobromir Zhivkov, there are separate signals of an increase in voter turnout, but if the pre-election campaign continues to be tense and negative, this would make the turnout even lower.
The national survey was financed and realized jointly by bTV and “Market LINKS“, conducted among 1011 persons over 18 years of age in the country in the period September 25 - October 1, 2024, using the methods of direct-personal interview and online survey.