The issue of vote buying, controlled vote and their prevention traditionally becomes relevant before elections. However, she entered the political and public debate with particular sharpness before the seventh early parliamentary elections in a row. Journalistic reports, actions of the Ministry of the Interior and political revelations provide clarity about the depth of the problem, which is becoming more and more crucial in the face of declining voter turnout in the country. In these conditions, public trust in the country's political parties is becoming more and more difficult, and the trust in the elections themselves could also be called into question.
„Gallup International Poll“ conducted a special survey for the Bulgarian National Television to check the attitudes towards voting against incentive, payment or coercion. The research was conducted between September 28 and October 6, 2024 among 806 people using the face-to-face method. with tablets.
When asked directly whether or not they would accept to vote for pay, other inducement or coercion in the weeks before the vote, a tenth of respondents admitted, 78% denied, and over a tenth (12%) said they could not judge. The data, of course, are declarative, and their sincerity could be questioned, but they give grounds for an analysis of the depth of the problem.
One tenth, admitting openly that they would agree to vote under similar conditions is approximately equal to more than 500 thousand of those who have the right to vote in the country. One can only speculate about the share of those who concealed the truth in their answers and what is behind the 12 percent of respondents who answered "I don't know". Particularly worrying data in the conditions of declining voter turnout.
The differences in the answers of the respondents who stated that they will definitely vote in the upcoming elections and all those asked are not significant. Among those who firmly decided to vote, the share of "I don't know" answers is decreasing, but both categorical denial and declarative recognition are increasing. Among those who firmly decided to vote, the share of answers "yes, I would" is 12%, which with an expected activity, for example, of about 2 million people, conditionally equals about 240 thousand people. However, the truth is probably in even higher numbers.
Among the public groups that are most at risk of having their vote bought, controlled or otherwise incentivized are naturally those with less education, low-income respondents, those living in small cities and towns, unoccupied. Affirmative answers among those asked with primary and lower education reach a worrying 25 percent. The share of "yes" answers is even more significant. among those who define themselves as Roma.
Studies by “Gallup International Balkan“ in 2019, the summer of 2024 and now show that attitudes on this issue are stable and do not change with a change in the political environment.
Against this background, attitudes towards the fairness of elections are mostly negative. When asked if they think that the upcoming elections for the National Assembly will be free and fair, 62% of the respondents answer negatively, 18% are optimistic, and another 20% cannot judge. The picture looks extremely alarming against the background of research practice in the last decade.
Expectedly, the electorates of the parties that have a greater chance of forming a government and occupying leading positions in the National Assembly after the elections are more positively disposed to the fairness of the election procedure, but even among these electorates the share of optimism does not exceed that of the pessimists. Thus, the data speak of a deterioration of trust not only in political parties, but in the electoral rules by which our political system functions.
A comparison of the attitudes of all respondents to those who have stated their firm intention to vote shows a somewhat milder pessimism among voters. And yet more than half of them (54%) are also of the opinion that the vote will rather not be free and fair.
Of course, those who will engage in elective procedures are unlikely to do so if they expect the “game to be rigged”. Everyone believes in their honesty, but there seems to be a growing general distrust that everyone is playing the same game, or at least following the same rules.
The research was conducted between September 28 and October 6, 2024 among 806 people using the face-to-face method. with tablets ordered by BNT. The sample is representative of the adult population of the country. The maximum standard deviation is +3.5% at 50 percent shares. 1% of the sample is equal to about 54 thousand people.