At this stage, our entry into the Eurozone is not in danger. The other problem area for revenues is the failure to fulfill the promised non-tax revenues - property income and dividends of state-owned enterprises, which they pay into the budget. Now 300 million should be able to enter the budget along this line.
This is what the economist Georgi Ganev predicted before the BNR.
"According to my expectations, we will fulfill the last criterion with the data for November or December. An emergency report will be requested immediately thereafter. He will have to work with the 2023 budget data because those for 2024 will not be available yet, he explained.
When asked about the closing budget year, the economist opined that the situation has a gray area. According to him, it is possible that some problems will arise for the Finance Minister by the end of the year.
For him, however, the talk that the revenue part is going very badly, does not correspond to the truth, with the exception of the possibly pledged revenue under the Recovery and Resilience Plan. "There, two political forces - by force, by pulling out cables, caused this damage to the Bulgarian budget,", he explained.
Tax revenues are going according to plan, the economist was categorical in an interview for the program "Above all". According to him, there will be an almost complete implementation of the budget. And he stated that he does not expect upheavals along this line.
"Whatever uncollected revenues there are towards the end of the year, they are not such as to be a problem for the committed buffers,", he believes.
The social payments are also going according to plan, there is not a single surprise - that there will be bigger expenses than the planned ones, says Georgi Ganev categorically.
According to him, where there could be a problem is an expendable pen. According to him, the unexpected things are in the personnel costs of the state administration. And the reasons are 3:
"At the beginning of 2024, the National Assembly adopted several spending increases along this line, without providing them in the budget. These were 3 increases - in the army, in the universities and in the Ministry of the Interior. From there comes the problem in the expenditure part of the budget. They are unsecured costs. If there's any problem with the budget right now, it's because of those people who, after the budget was passed, without bailing them out financially, voted for these spending increases.
Revenues are planned relatively optimistically, noted the economist and added that if there are any risks in the revenue part, it is that they will not be fulfilled. According to him, the risks were balanced.
According to him, the finance ministry intends to submit a budget for 2025, which he says is correct.
"The Minister of Finance is trying to prevent low-level populist games through the budget with an election campaign for possible next elections. This situation is not simple.
By the end of September, the deficit was reported to be BGN 2.8 billion, pointed out Georgi Ganev and added:
"With a 6.2 billion cash deficit set in the Budget Law, there are 3.4 billion in 3 months. They should be able to handle it".