President Donald Trump is expected to leave for Asia later this week, hoping that his tour to the other side of the world will help him solve important problems that he cannot afford to let fester.
At stake is nothing less than the future of the global economy, which could depend on whether he can calm trade tensions with Beijing during his expected meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping. One misstep could shake up a number of American economic sectors already shaken by Trump’s aggressive tariffs, government cuts and risky policies.
Trump’s improvisational strategy has had its ups and downs since he returned to office in January. Hamas has returned Israeli hostages, but the Middle East ceasefire remains fragile; the trade war with China has had its ups and downs this year; and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has not slowed down despite Trump’s efforts to end the conflict.
Trump’s trip has been shrouded in mystery, with the White House making no official announcements about most of his stops. The president said yesterday he plans to visit Malaysia, which is hosting a regional summit, and then Japan, where he is trying to attract foreign investment.
He will also visit South Korea, where he will work on trade issues and expects to meet with Xi. Beijing has not yet confirmed that the two leaders will meet, and they have recently exchanged threats of tariffs and export restrictions.
"I have a very good relationship with President Xi Jinping of China," Trump told reporters aboard "Air Force One" on Sunday. He offered to reduce tariffs but said "the Chinese have to give something in return," including buying American soybeans, reducing the flow of fentanyl ingredients and lifting restrictions on rare earth elements, which are critical to high-tech manufacturing.
Trump expressed even greater confidence yesterday, saying: "I think we're going to make a fantastic deal with China in the end." and "it will be wonderful for the whole world".
Just days before Trump's departure, his trip has been shrouded in an unusual information fog, even by the standards of a president who likes to keep people in the dark about his next move.
"From the very beginning, the whole trip seemed to be marked by uncertainty," said Bonnie Glaser, managing director of the German Marshall Fund, a Washington think tank.
This is Trump's first trip to Asia since returning to office. While he has hosted leaders from the region at the White House, he has not built the kind of deep relationships with them that he has on other continents.
Trump's approach to Asia has focused on using tariffs to change what he says are unfair trade practices, which has unnerved countries that rely on the United States as the world's biggest export market. There are also concerns about Trump's meeting with Xi and the possibility that the conflict between the two leaders could lead to a collapse of the global economy.
"There will be some appreciation for the fact that he is there, but I don't think it will be enough to dispel the doubts (about him) that are spreading in the region," Glaser predicted.
The Republican president has reduced his foreign policy team compared to his first term, breaking with the traditional approach of filling it with experts from the National Security Council and relying instead on a core of loyal aides.
"There are not many staffers in the White House capable of doing this kind of work," said Rush Doshi, who helped shape US China policy under President Joe Biden. "This puts us in uncharted waters," the expert added.
Michael Green, who served on the National Security Council under President George W. Bush and now heads the Center for the Study of the United States in Sydney, Australia, said Trump has no clear strategy for Asia.
"Everyone is waiting to see what his position is on this whole range of issues," the analyst said.
Others say Trump's approach is working. Anthony Kim, an expert on international economic relations at the Heritage Foundation, said Japan and South Korea are ready to work with the U.S. government to strengthen their partnership.
Their message is "let's sit down and discuss the important details to make a deal," Kim said.
Malaysia is hosting the annual Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit, which Trump attended only once during his first term, and even skipped the event when it was held via videoconference during the COVID-19 pandemic.
However, this year's summit offers an opportunity to highlight Trump's peacemaking efforts, which he has made the centerpiece of his foreign policy agenda.
Fighting broke out between Thailand and Cambodia over the summer along their disputed border, and Trump threatened to cut trade agreements with both countries if they did not end the conflict.
“They were willing to come together and talk to avoid greater economic losses,” said Ja Yan Chong, a professor of political science at the National University of Singapore.
Malaysia and the United States are working to achieve a lasting truce between Phnom Penh and Bangkok. Malaysia's foreign minister said Trump "looks forward" to signing a concrete agreement along those lines at the summit.
Trump's next stop is Japan. Earlier this year, Washington and Tokyo reached a trade deal that included a pledge of $550 billion in investment in American projects.
Japan is in a time of political transition, with Sanae Takaichi elected earlier today as the country's first female prime minister.
Takaichi is a protégé of Shinzo Abe, a former prime minister who was assassinated after leaving office. Trump had a close relationship with Abe during his first term, and Green said Takaichi "has the potential to play the same role." Working with Trump and maintaining his commitment to U.S. alliances "requires a level of interaction and trust that none of the Asian leaders enjoy," Green said. The culmination of the U.S. president's tour is likely to be in South Korea, which is hosting this year's Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit. Trump has said he will meet with Xi Jinping while there. Tensions between the two countries have escalated in recent weeks, especially after China announced restrictions on exports of rare earth metals. Trump has threatened to retaliate with tariffs so high that he himself admits they would be unsustainable in the long run.
Doshi, the former Biden adviser, said there are three possible outcomes to Trump's meeting with Xi Jinping - – – "deal, no deal or disaster". He said China is hopeful after Trump backed down from previously announced tariffs in response to Beijing's curbs on rare-earth magnet exports.
"The Chinese think they have President Trump figured out," Doshi said, adding, "They think if they keep the pressure on, he will back down."
Trump said yesterday that China "has treated the United States with great respect" since he took office. He added: "I can threaten them with a lot of other things, but I want to be good to China".
Another open issue will be Trump's trade talks with South Korea, which faces U.S. tariffs that could severely damage its auto industry. But Seoul has resisted Trump's demand for a $350 billion investment fund similar to the one in Japan.
"There is some momentum in the talks," said Wendy Cutler, a U.S. trade negotiator for more than two decades and now a senior vice president at the Asia Society. "But I don't want to overstate it, because there are some fundamental differences about this fund that need to be clarified," she added.
Cutler said it's not unusual for negotiations to drag on until the last minute, but this time "there are so many uncertainties".
Translated from English: Alexey Margoevsky, BTA