Maduro never waited for support from "his friend Vladimir". It's just that Russia has other concerns and is unlikely to stand up for Venezuela or Iran, writes Ivan Preobrazhensky.
Vladimir Putin did not comment on the capture by US special forces of his ally - Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro. The Kremlin was not indignant even after the US military began to seize Russian-flagged tankers trying to leave Venezuela. Putin did not say a word in support of Venezuela, nor did he defend his other ally, Iran, where the authorities have been brutally suppressing mass protests in recent weeks, which Donald Trump, in turn, threatened to help. Many see this as a show of weakness, but does Putin think so?
Friends in Need
Although, against the backdrop of the intensifying protests, the media began to speculate on the topic of a possible escape of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to Russia, Iran has never been considered a reliable ally by the Kremlin. Russia did not rush to save its Iranian "friends" during the short Iran-Israeli war, in which the United States then intervened. And now Putin is most ready to get involved as a mediator in indirect negotiations between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian.
As for Venezuela, all statements on this issue are made by the Russian Foreign Ministry. And it is very soft in its statements regarding American interference in the internal affairs of Venezuela and the arrest of the illegitimate, but still recognized by Russia, leader of the state. It is not difficult to find an explanation for this position of Moscow. The first thing that comes to mind is Russia's impotence. The Kremlin, even if it wanted to help the Iranian regime or the Venezuelan "drug lords", as the Americans call them, can hardly afford it.
The Russian army is busy with the war against Ukraine, which it has not been able to cope with for four years. All Moscow can do is send security consultants, maybe a few special forces, and some air defense (the rest is needed because it doesn’t have enough resources to shoot down all the Ukrainian drones). The Russians did that. And then, as they say, washed their hands of it. If you make a lot of noise about your support, you will inevitably look weak and stupid.
It’s not just weakness
Apart from weakness, which is the most obvious reason, there are others. Despite the forced cooperation in recent years, the purchase of technology from the Iranians for the production of military drones, the supply of air defense systems to Iran, and the official investments of several tens of billions of dollars in the Venezuelan economy, especially in the oil industry, these two countries are for Russia companions, not allies. Ideologically, they are very far from Vladimir Putin, and their leaders are interesting to him only to the extent that they help implement his other plans and goals.
The main problem of the Russian dictator since February 2022 is one - Ukraine. The dismantling or subjugation of the neighboring country is his obvious super-goal, for which he sacrifices everything else. And since February last year, the new US President Donald Trump and Russia's imitation of peace talks on Ukraine with his participation or mediation have played an important role in this scheme.
This imitation allowed the Russian army to intensify air strikes and leave several Ukrainian cities, including the capital Kiev, without electricity and heat. The lack of new sanctions from the US, the termination of grant or loan support for Ukraine, and the reduction in sales of even weapons to the Ukrainian army, which the European Union pays for - all this is very profitable for Putin. He has been so persistently thwarting peace talks that he clearly intends to win in the foreseeable future, his land offensive continues, Dnipro and Zaporozhye are already the subject of Russian attacks.
The True Ally
And at this very moment, as if on command, the Americans have taken up Russia's allies in Asia and Latin America. To openly come to their defense would mean, and guaranteed, to provoke a blow against themselves. This would mean sanctions at the very least, and perhaps a sharp increase in military support for Ukraine by Donald Trump.
It is dangerous even to simply say something. Because instead of special envoy Steve Witkoff and the president's son-in-law Jared Kushner going to Moscow, missiles could go to Ukraine.
For Putin, these considerations are probably much more important than whether he will prove to be a weak ally to someone or not. That is why he has to swallow his pride and remain silent, perhaps even letting Trump know through unofficial channels that he is doing all this only out of personal respect for the American leader. Putin is excellent at flattering the US president, as their phone calls and personal negotiations have shown.
This text expresses the opinion of the author and may not coincide with the positions of the Bulgarian editorial office and DW as a whole.