Author: Georgi Lozanov
The election campaign is never limited to the official one-month period, but has a much longer "warm-up" part that is capable of shifting electoral strata. Its start for the upcoming parliamentary elections was given with the overthrow of the last regular government by mass protests against it and against the governance model that the square specifically linked to Peevski and Borisov. The communication strategies during such a "warm-up" part can be basically systematized into three categories: discrediting, self-promotion and silencing.
Discrediting the PP-DB in a well-known way from the past
It is no surprise that the PP-DB remains the favorite object of discrediting, which has become the main livelihood of other political entities. And they are having a good time, because it frees them from the question of their own policies and whether they even have any. For them, this is a way to attract “ordinary people“ by setting them against the “yellow vests” from the PP-DB, supported by the urban elites. The strategy is in the spirit of the Maoist “cultural revolution“, when the intelligentsia and the educated classes were opposed to the people (the workers and the peasants) and declared “harmful“.
It was expected that the degree of discrediting of the PP-DB would increase, since the public discontent, due to its ideological proximity to them, could significantly increase their vote. But it was a shock that a tragedy like the one in Petrokhan, which claimed six lives, was used for this purpose. Against the background of the unexpected activity of the Prosecutor General and the inexplicable passivity of the Minister of the Interior, it was necessary to quickly - even before there was any evidence - launch the version of the “pedophile sect“ and blame it on “We continue the change“ on the principle: accuse them and let them explain themselves.
And in order to increase the feeling of their guilt, the victims of the tragedy had to be further vilified, which subjected their relatives to secondary victimization and drove them to protest. Many citizens also joined in, convinced that the truth about the case was not being sought, but a pre-election effect. Because while the investigation of the criminal offense was leading to more questions than answers, it had already been told to the public as a political crime consisting of supporting NGOs.
Blows "below the belt" against the government of Andrey Gyurov as well
By the way, turning NGOs into a "dirty word" is a practiced approach in the fight of the DPS-New Beginning with the "Sorosoids" and the "grant-givers", as well as that of "Vazrazhdane" with "foreign agents", which is Putin's patent. The autocrats understand that if they have mastered the first and second sectors - that is, state institutions and business, their last enemy is the third sector - civil society with its NGOs and independent media. As soon as they defeat them too, they have completely won.
When Petrokhan's discrediting energy subsided, including due to discrepancies in the facts presented, a new topic appeared, convenient for speculation: the caretaker government with Prime Minister Andrey Gyurov. It was labeled as a PP-DB government and on this basis was accused of illegitimately governing the country. And exactly the same accusation on the same grounds should then fall on GERB because of the caretaker government of Dimitar Glavchev.
Moreover, the elections held by Glavchev's caretaker government were partially annulled by the Constitutional Court as being so unfair that they led to a shift in parliament. However, if Gyurov's government minimizes the bought and controlled vote, if it manages to cope with the extremely complicated international situation and gives a European face to the government in our country, its identification with the PP-DB can only increase electoral support for them.
Borisov is trying to restore his old charisma
The master of self-promotion is undoubtedly Boyko Borisov, who never misses an opportunity to attribute everything Bulgaria has achieved in its most recent history to the GERB government and to his own role in particular. The insistent emphasis on it is tantamount to answering "a firm no" to the periodically asked question of whether GERB's political future would not be better if it ceased to be a leading party and "second-tier" figures were given the lead.
What is new in this campaign is that Borisov decided to leave the zones of complete media comfort, such as sideline briefings, speeches to party activists and from the “jeep”, to give extensive interviews to journalists with different socio-political profiles: Dachkov, Karbovski, Prokopieva, Patrashkova. His general message - I can talk to everyone and everyone wants to talk to me - is clear and aims to restore his public charisma from the initial period of his appearances. But his most intractable problem remains just one of those that hang around his neck with the weight of a millstone. Borisov is trying to free himself from it, but the bravest so far is to loudly object to his being bundled with Peevski. With which he silently says: I don't know how toxic he is.
Delyan Peevski, for his part, fell silent as after the protests of 2013/2014 and almost stopped speaking on behalf of the capital D of the state. However, he did not forget to get the National Assembly to force the government to submit for ratification our accession to the Trump Board, even though the constitutional order is the opposite. The important thing is for the American ambassador to tell Trump who his man is here and to finally remove the “magnetic” burden from him. And to also tell him that Bulgaria is already on board with Orban and will smoothly change course under the leadership of Radev. Which is why Peevski and Borisov are apparently giving up their attacks on the former president, and he, in a reciprocal gesture, is refusing to announce who the oligarchs he will fight against are.
Radev is clearly counting on the penalty vote against the others
Radev himself turned out to be, like Simeon Saxe-Coburg-Gotha, the king of silence and did not give a single clear political answer - neither in principle, nor on current topics, nor with the selection in his lists. He is obviously counting on each new party to automatically become the first (as it was with NMSV, GERB, ITN and PP), because it accumulates the penalty vote against all the others. And the more cautiously he goes out into the field, the less he will waste it. This is true, but until a point when it starts to look like you are hiding something. And support for Radev has already started to fall.
PP-DB could turn all three strategies to their advantage. Discrediting by the formula "all against one" evokes sympathy for one. Self-promotion has no evidentiary value and leaves suspicion that you are appropriating other people's successes. And silence is perceived as hesitation and gives priority to categorical political positions. And the PP-DB are the only ones who have declared such positions on both major issues facing Bulgaria: corruption and Eurosceptic influence. About 40% of voters are also against the status quo and the EU.
This is an impressive electoral base that the PP-DB can attract if they do not seek votes outside it with compromise moves and do not undermine trust in themselves with inter-party squabbles.