The US president can order a military operation without the approval of Congress for only a period of 60 days. In the case of the war in Iran, this period expires on May 1. What does this mean for Trump and what options does he have?
Donald Trump likes to present himself as a strong president who exhausts all his powers set out in the US Constitution. As commander-in-chief of the armed forces, he has the right to launch a military operation, but then he must officially notify Congress of this - within 48 hours.
In the case of the war in Iran, he did so on time - on March 2. Now, however, the second deadline is approaching: such an operation can only last 60 days without the approval of deputies and senators. That deadline expires on May 1.
If a negotiated solution between Washington and Tehran does not emerge by then, the president must take new steps to ensure that the military operation against Iran remains legitimate. What options are there for Trump, who has regularly ruled by decree in his second term, bypassing parliament?
What is the War Powers Resolution?
The way in which powers are distributed between Congress and the president in the event of war is regulated in the so-called War Powers Resolution. When it was adopted in 1973, the law did not please then-President Richard Nixon. However, his veto was overridden by Congress with a two-thirds majority, and the law entered into force. The resolution is considered a lesson from the Vietnam War, which was only approved by Congress in 1964.
Almost 240 years ago, the Founding Fathers of the United States divided the issue of waging war in the Constitution in the following way: the president is the supreme commander of the armed forces, but only Congress has the right to declare war. Today, declaring war has long been out of the question - the last time the US Congress voted for a declaration of war was on June 4, 1942 - against Bulgaria, Hungary and Romania, which were allies of Nazi Germany during World War II.
The War Powers Resolution guarantees Congress rights in modern conflicts without a formal declaration of war, but at the same time provides the president with sufficient freedom of action in delicate situations. How things will develop from here on depends not only on the decisions that will be made in Washington, but also on the still unclear situation in the Near and Middle East.
The deadline can be extended, but only by 30 days
According to the law, the American president can extend the 60-day deadline by another 30 days once - in particular to allow for an orderly withdrawal of troops. Economist Stormy-Annika Mildner, head of the think tank “Aspen Institute Germany“, believes that this will be the most likely scenario: “I assume that Trump will take advantage of the additional 30 days – "on the grounds that progress has already been made, that there is a ceasefire or that the war is about to end, so this time is needed to complete the process," she said in an interview with DW.
However, this argument would be weakened if the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, for example, worsens even further and the indefinite ceasefire that is currently in force is violated. "If the conflict now escalates even further, the argument for these 30 days will naturally be even more controversial than it already is," says Mildner.
“The New York Times“ points to another possibility: Trump could insist that the 60-day rule does not apply in this particular case. Similarly, in 2011, President Barack Obama justified the UN-approved airstrikes in Libya: The military operation does not involve prolonged fighting, nor does it involve sending troops on the ground, Obama argued at the time.
Five resolutions against the military operation - five times "no"
As a rule, however, before major military actions, presidents seek support from the population and in particular from Congress - for example, George W. Bush before the Iraq war in 2003. The fact that Trump did not do this during the US-Israeli attack on Iran is a vulnerable point that deputies and senators from the opposition Democratic Party have already used several times: since the beginning of March, there have been a total of five votes in both chambers on resolutions that were supposed to make Trump's actions more difficult. As expected, the resolutions were rejected by the Republican majority in both chambers - although in some cases by a very small margin.
“Apart from passing resolutions, Congress has only limited options to actively end the war“, says Stormy-Annika Mildner: “An effective tool would be to cut off funding. But politically, that is almost impossible“. Because the US military has a high level of public trust, and cutting off funding for soldiers would likely meet with little understanding outside party circles.
Congress is already thinking about midterm elections
But the five votes in Congress so far do not necessarily mean that the sixth - after the 60-day deadline - will be easy. According to the “New York Times“, several Republicans have already announced that they will reconsider their future voting behavior. John Curtis, a Republican senator from Utah, has published a text in which he clearly states: "I will not support prolonged military action beyond the 60-day period without congressional approval." However, the head of the Aspen Institute, Mildner, says: "For many Republicans, it is politically much easier to vote against resolutions to end the war than to actively approve its continuation. The latter would mean taking clear responsibility for the duration, costs and risks of the mission, which would make them highly vulnerable just before the midterm elections."
They are scheduled for November 3 - then all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 seats in the Senate will be redistributed. Midterm elections have often been a time of discontent with the president's administration, and this year, opinion polls suggest that Trump's Republicans could lose their majority in both chambers.
American political consultant Jonathan Katz of the Brookings Institution think tank told DW that candidates are watching the polls very closely, especially in states and constituencies where a contested outcome is expected. "At the same time, it would be a risky political move to vote against Trump's military operation before the midterm elections." Republicans in Congress are less likely to seek confrontation with a president who is known for attacking Republicans in Congress he sees as disloyal, Katz said.
One reason for President Trump's low approval rating is the high cost of living, which is also largely due to higher fuel prices resulting from the Iran war. Even within Trump's otherwise tight-knit MAGA movement, there is strong criticism of the war. The president is under immense pressure to find a solution that will preserve his dignity before the midterm elections - no matter what Congress does.