"There is no doubt that Russia is preparing for confrontation, that it will test us as soon as it can. But war is not inevitable: we can influence Russian plans," says Muriel Domenac, former French ambassador to NATO.
DV: From France's perspective, what are the challenges facing NATO's eastern flank, including in the Black Sea region?
Muriel Domenac: I often participate in public debate in France and communicate with young people with whom I talk about the Russian threat, which is not something we have chosen. Neither we nor the countries on the eastern flank of the Alliance have chosen Russia as an adversary. But it is Russia that defines us as an enemy. And that is why I often quote to young people the words of Julien Freund, addressed to Jean Hippolyte, who was a French pacifist: "You may not want to have enemies, but if the enemy defines you as his enemy, you already become one".
"Russia has already gone too far not to go even further"
By attacking Ukraine, Russia has confirmed that it is in the process of revising the European security order and has therefore gone too far not to go even further. And so it poses a threat to Europe, starting from its eastern flank.
From my point of view, there is no doubt that there is a Russian threat, which for now is nevertheless limited by the heroic resistance of the Ukrainians. If Ukraine had not managed to contain it, this Russian threat would have accelerated seriously. That is why supporting Ukraine is an investment in our security.
DV: How do you define the Russian threat today to people and countries that deny it?
Muriel Domenac: The threat is a combination of intent and capacity to carry it out. I think Russia declares its intentions almost every day and shows them through its actions. Since it is limited in the conventional sphere, it conducts hybrid operations - disinformation, drone flights, and sometimes airspace violations. In the Black Sea, you can also see how it tries to intimidate, to cut underwater cables - even though these are international waters and international airspace.
All this is also supported by nuclear rhetoric. That is, Russia is practically saying: "Be careful - if you respond to my hybrid actions, I have nuclear weapons and I threaten you with Armageddon". That's why I think we need to react calmly. All intelligence agencies have established that Russia is trying to increase its armed forces and by 2030 have twice as many soldiers as it had in 2022, when it invaded Ukraine.
Therefore, I think there is no doubt that Russia is preparing for a confrontation, that it will test us as soon as it can. I would be surprised if it did it somewhere other than on the eastern front, because that is the line of contact.
Does this mean that we are in a pre-war situation and that war is inevitable? No, we can absolutely influence Russian plans to increase the cost of such a potential aggression.
DV: Against this background, how can the countries of Europe strengthen their defense capabilities without the participation of the United States, given the tension in their relations with the Trump administration?
"We all know our place under the sun. But now we have to face reality."
Muriel Domenech: Thank you for asking the question in this way, because for a long time even NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, instead of asking how Europe can strengthen its ability to defend itself, said that Europe cannot defend itself alone.
There is no doubt that we all prefer to defend ourselves with the help of the Americans, even the French. We all know our place under the sun. But now we have to face reality. This means strengthening defense efforts. We have set ourselves a collective target of spending 3.5% of GDP on defence. However, it is not enough to spend more - we need to spend more wisely.
This also raises questions about industrial interests and cooperation in this area - between countries that have an industrial base and those that do not. There are obviously challenges around the leadership between France and Germany in terms of cooperation projects (ed. note, the Franco-German FCAS fighter jet project continues to lag behind due to disputes over what functionalities it should have).
None of the major European countries has the means to be the undisputed leader. Not France, not the UK, not Germany, not Poland. Each of them has its strengths. That is why we need to think and act collectively.
DV: What are the concrete steps in this direction that should be taken by the European countries in NATO?
Muriel Domenac: The first concrete step is to support Ukraine. Both now and in the event of a peace agreement, and then to provide guarantees for the security of Ukraine.
Secondly, to increase the cost of a possible Russian aggression. That is, to strengthen both conventional deterrence and the capacity for conventional strikes in depth. This also means having stronger air defense. This means strengthening the forces of our ground forces. This means conducting exercises, as we already do.
France stands in solidarity with its allies, including in the Black Sea region, since we lead the structure for NATO's enhanced forward presence in Romania. The French Navy regularly conducts surveillance operations.
DW: What role can France play in Europe's security architecture after the change in its nuclear doctrine, which could extend the French nuclear umbrella to other European countries?
Muriel Domenac: This is indeed an extremely important question given the significant change in France's nuclear doctrine, because for the first time the country's president has given specific details about the European aspect of the French deterrent. This means that there is no situation in which the security of our allies is threatened without also threatening that of France.
What he said was very specific. First, in relation to the "mutual assistance" between French nuclear forces and the conventional forces of our allies.
And secondly, Emmanuel Macron talked about the possibility of distributing French strategic forces among our partners. So this is really a completely new element. And what was very interesting is that eight European countries responded. Including Germany.
"We stopped pretending that nothing happened"
DW: How can the often negative narrative about the state of European countries and their capacity to defend themselves change?
Muriel Domenac: I think we really need to pay attention to our successes as well. We have a tendency, especially in France, to belittle ourselves. This, of course, also exists elsewhere in Europe, we are not the only ones who win "Palme d'Or" for this.
I think that if we look at recent events, the Europeans still managed, through a firm and united position, to discourage Trump from taking Greenland. That is, there was a moment when we stopped pretending that nothing happened. I think the Europeans have understood that they need to raise their voice a little and have come out of denial.
Even a country as attached to the guarantee of American defense as Poland has issued a statement saying, "We cannot pretend not to hear what we hear from the American president about NATO".
And that is essential. So I am moderately optimistic that the Europeans understand that they have no other choice - and that we must be able to rely on each other.
Muriel Domenac is a former French ambassador to NATO (2019-2024) and a security expert. Mihail Ivanov spoke with her at the French Institute in Sofia ahead of her participation in the conference "Who Will Defend Europe: Answers from Paris and Sofia".