The strikes of the Ukrainian army are increasingly hitting targets on Russian territory. And the Russian air defense is failing. Experts are talking about a new phase of the war. What does this mean?
To the incessant Russian strikes with missiles and drones, which destroy civilian infrastructure and lead to casualties among the civilian population, Kiev has begun to respond with intensified attacks. The strikes of the Ukrainian army are increasingly hitting targets on Russian territory. How did this become possible, what is the current situation on the front and why do observers believe that this is a new phase of the war?
According to military expert Colonel Markus Reisner, a change is being observed in the war. "Kiev is already waging war at a strategic level and, unlike in recent years, when Russian airstrikes against Ukraine were predominant, today it is able to quickly respond to Russia and its air attacks."
"This is not just a temporary phenomenon"
"How did this become possible? I think Ukraine has learned a lot in recent years and, despite the certain distancing of the United States, has found allies in Europe who are helping it produce enough drones to carry out effective attacks against Russia," he continues. "Ukraine had to build up forces for effective attacks. This means that the country can launch more drones than Russia can intercept with its air defense system," says Reisner.
A similar observation is shared by Israeli military expert David Sharp, specifying that the Ukrainians "have not just built up forces". "They have organized mass production of a wide range of drones, and the results of this are reflected in the scale of the strikes. This is not a temporary phenomenon," Sharp is convinced.
At the same time, he notes that the tactic of using drones to stop the movement of enemy troops, which the Ukrainians are resorting to, is not new. "Drones have long become the main means of defeat on the front for both sides. But because the Russian army is advancing more actively, it has activated the infantry to a greater extent, respectively, the targets for the Ukrainians are more."
Sharp's assessment is that the active use of drones by the Ukrainian army is due to "not always good conditions", but to the fact that it lacks its own infantry and high-quality, numerous aviation. "And drones are a sufficiently effective and mass-produced weapon, so they are being used to the fullest extent."
Russian refineries - a "legitimate target" for Ukraine
According to Volodymyr Fesenko, an expert from the Ukrainian Center for Applied Policy Studies, for Kiev the active use of drones for attacks against Russia, i.e. "asymmetric warfare, the transfer of war to the territory of Russia", is one of the main methods of resisting Russian aggression. "For us, this is a very important part of the war - because we cannot compete with Russia in the field of resources despite European support for our country," he emphasizes.
"The fact that the Russians themselves feel this war is more of a side effect. But from a purely psychological point of view, this is also very important," adds the expert, who shares the opinion that the air strikes deep into Russian territory are evidence of the beginning of a new phase of the conflict.
Fesenko reminds that the main targets of Ukrainian attacks in Russia are military plants and refineries. "The main income that allows Russia to continue the war is from the sale of oil. Therefore, refineries are a legitimate target for Ukraine." The expert told DW that one of the most attractive targets for Ukraine in the future is the "Alabuga" economic zone, where Russian drone production enterprises are located, and in addition, it is important for Kiev to attack the ports in the Baltic Sea, because the main part of Russia's oil exports passes through there. Among the targets, he also lists objects of military importance in the vicinity of Moscow and St. Petersburg.
Why is the Russian air defense not coping with Ukrainian drones?
Russian authorities are increasingly reporting on destroyed Ukrainian drones approaching Moscow or other cities. Why is the Russian air defense (air defense) not coping? There are both objective and subjective reasons, commented Israeli military expert David Sharp. "First of all, it is not the most advanced material and technical part - despite all the propaganda, the Russian air defense is not the pinnacle of technology. In addition, it was not created to fight drones, but with classic targets."
Secondly, the not-so-good training of the personnel and the command of the air defense plays a role, he continues, giving as an example the shortage of air defense equipment. Russia is by no means the only country facing this problem, since the production of these equipment is not only expensive, but also a technically complex process.
Because of all this, the Russian air defense does not act far-sightedly, notes Sharp, according to whom Russia is now trying to accumulate resources in order to increase the pressure and achieve great results within the framework of the summer campaign. "What was achieved in the spring clearly does not meet the expectations of the Russian command and Putin personally", he says. The Russian leadership "will not give up the idea of conquering the Donbass, and whatever else can be conquered along the way", he predicts. Therefore, there will inevitably be attempts to increase pressure on key front lines.
Escalation or peace talks: what lies ahead?
Volodymyr Fesenko believes that in the conditions of a stalemate, the Kremlin has two alternatives. The first is to gradually begin realistic negotiations to end hostilities through a pragmatic compromise. "The other option is very risky. This is an escalation of the war, associated with mass mobilization. But this can intensify the crisis trends in Russia: the dissatisfaction of the population and war fatigue."
The Ukrainian political scientist suggests that Moscow is also considering another option - to try to attack neighboring European countries, possibly in a hybrid form, and thus test the stability of NATO and intimidate Ukraine's Western allies so that they refuse to support it and make concessions to Russia. "Each of these options is very risky. That's why I think that the Kremlin hasn't made a final decision yet - they are betting on summer attacks against Ukraine in the hope that it will be broken, and then a decision will be made in the fall about further actions," Fesenko summed up.