Vladimir Putin has found himself in a situation where the war against Ukraine is beginning to undermine not only the Russian economy, but also his own political image, said the British historian and analyst of Russia Robert Service to The Telegraph.
The author recalls that Russian political culture traditionally associates the legitimacy of power with military victories. The article cites historical examples - from the defeat of the Russian Empire in the war with Japan in 1905 to the abdication of Tsar Nicholas II after defeats in World War I.
According to Service, the Kremlin's previous military campaigns were relatively easy for Putin. The annexation of Crimea in 2014 was virtually unopposed, and the operation in Syria was largely limited to air strikes. The full-scale war against Ukraine, however, turned out to be quite different.
The author points out that in 2026, the Victory Day parade on Red Square was held for the first time without tanks and the latest military equipment due to fears of attacks by Ukrainian drones. Meanwhile, strikes on Russian territory have become regular, even deep in the rear.
He writes that the Kremlin expected to complete the invasion in a few days, and some Russian tank crews carried parade uniforms with them at the start of the invasion, anticipating the parade on Khreshchatyk, the main street in Kiev.
Instead, the war has entered its fifth year, and the Russian economy is beginning to falter due to military spending and sanctions. The article notes that the Kremlin is having increasing difficulty replenishing its army with personnel. According to the author's estimates, Russia is losing at least 30,000 soldiers killed and wounded every month.
The historian draws attention to Putin's decision to expand mobilization mechanisms. As Service points out, the partial mobilization in the fall of 2022 caused significant public discontent, and now the government is practically moving towards permanent military service.
The article also notes that the Kremlin is strengthening its control over the information space. The author writes that the authorities have begun to restrict the use of the Telegram messenger and promote state-controlled alternatives accessible to Russian intelligence agencies.
According to Service, despite the repressive apparatus and control over the media, Putin’s image is gradually eroding, threatening the stability of the regime itself.
At the same time, Service believes that even a potential end to the war on the Kremlin’s terms will prevent Russia from regaining its former geopolitical influence. According to him, there are still no signs of the Russian elite’s readiness to openly oppose Putin, but the political situation in Russia could change unexpectedly – just as it happened during the fall of the Romanov dynasty in 1917.
“This war was a gigantic geopolitical mistake. Putin is unlikely to leave without a big explosion, and we cannot be sure that his successor will be better than him. "But there is at least a chance that without him a return to softer policies will become possible both in Russia and on the world stage," the observer summarizes.