At the Manager magazine forum this week, I said that it is increasingly likely that we will "hit the wall". It was hardly clear to many people, so I decided to write what exactly I mean.
This was commented on "Facebook" by Boyan Rashev.
The meniscus surgery will prevent me from running for a while, but it gives me the opportunity to read more and navigate the sharp turns of the oil market. Yesterday, another "news" about peace and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz came out, which quickly turned out to be false, but did lower the price of oil. This movie has been repeated every few days since the beginning of the conflict, but apparently it is still working. At the same time, the data is extremely clear - the reserves in the global oil system are melting like the snow on Vitosha in May.
As someone who both loves to run long distances and has an idea of how the global economy works, I cannot help but make a comparison between them. In marathon and ultra-long distance running, we talk about "hitting the wall". This is the moment when the pace suddenly collapses - usually around 30-35 km of the marathon - because the glycogen in the body is depleted. It is extremely important to prevent this by taking in enough nutrients in time to replace the lost fuel.
I know very well how a runner feels before the impact. You are moving well, your legs are still working, the pace seems relatively stable. But somewhere deep in the body, the critical limit has already been crossed. Reserves melt faster than they can be restored, and the body begins to live off its emergency reserves.
This is exactly what today's global economy reminds me of. The world resembles a person running an endless marathon. Every day, civilization has to move ships, planes, trucks, tractors, factories, armies, and food chains. And just as a runner burns carbohydrates, the industrial system burns oil.
But the similarity goes even deeper. The human body spends a huge amount of energy simply to exist - for the heart, brain, breathing, blood circulation, maintaining temperature. This is the basic metabolism, which actually spends about 70% of all energy. Running requires additional energy on top of that.
The petroleum system works in the same way. Vast quantities of oil and fuel must be constantly moved through wells, pipelines, tankers, refineries, warehouses, gas stations, and industry just to keep the world running. Just keeping the system running requires a constant supply of 6-7 billion barrels of oil and consumes a colossal amount of energy. Economic growth requires even more – just as keeping up the pace in a marathon requires extra calories beyond your basal metabolic rate.
Before March 2026, the world was running on a huge energy reserve – cheap oil, rising production, full warehouses, and vast strategic reserves. This was the "full glycogen" phase, when the body is strong and the pace seems natural and sustainable.
But over the past three months – since the start of the Gulf War – I have seen a very familiar pattern. At first glance, the problem doesn't seem so significant – the war has stopped "only" about 10-12% of the global flow of oil. Planes are still flying, tankers are sailing, gas stations are working, traffic jams in Sofia are not decreasing.
However, under the surface, the system is falling apart - the basic supplies, the needs to maintain the system are already being exhausted. In a marathon, the wall does not come when the body is completely without energy. It comes when you start burning through your emergency reserves just to maintain the current pace.
That's when the symptoms begin. First comes fatigue - high fuel prices. Then the decline in efficiency - inflation and slower growth. Then the cramps - logistical breakdowns and industrial problems. Finally, the body begins to shut down non-essential functions. The economy does the same. The most energy-intensive and least profitable activities are beginning to die first.
The last big wave of supplies from the Persian Gulf reached their destinations in April. After that, the entire world went into a state of depletion - first Asia and Australia, then Europe and lastly - the United States. Unfortunately, we have no way of knowing the exact numbers on a global scale, because almost no country publishes such recent data.
The United States is a major exception in this regard. In the past week alone, total U.S. oil reserves – including the strategic reserve – have fallen by 17.8 million barrels, the largest weekly draw in history. Of these, 9.9 million barrels came directly from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). Since the start of the conflict, the United States has drawn about 42 million barrels – roughly 10% of its entire strategic reserve. Almost all of it has gone to cover the deficit in Asia and Europe.
At this point, the global economy is like a Vitosha 100 competitor who eats his last energy gels somewhere around the Studena Dam, that is, infinitely far before the finish line – not to accelerate, but simply to avoid crashing. A sharp slowdown in the coming minutes is practically guaranteed, and recovery is possible well after normalizing nutrient intake. The human body needs time to process and use the new calories.
Even if the Strait of Hormuz were to open tomorrow and tankers were to sail to their destinations - which seems unlikely - the oil system would receive significant new supplies too late. Meanwhile, shortages in many places - primarily in Asia and Europe - are already guaranteed.
The wall is right in front of us. The blow is inevitable. The economy will slow down sharply, and recovery depends entirely on the return of normal traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
This is just a personal opinion and does not constitute an investment recommendation.