Russian sociological surveys show that equally many Russians support both peace talks and the actions of the Russian army in Ukraine. What does this paradox mean?
Recently, Russian director Andrei Zvyagintsev, who was awarded the "Grand Prix" at the Cannes Film Festival, caused a scandal by publicly calling on the Russian president to "stop the massacre", i.e. the aggression against Ukraine. He could have remained silent, but he did not. And his statement not only did not arouse enthusiasm from Ukraine, but there were also reactions according to which it was slavish in form and content – it did more harm than good.
Will Ukrainians and Russians forgive each other?
Zvyagintsev's words only further highlighted the gap that has naturally arisen between Russian society and Ukraine. The war will end sooner or later, hopefully with the defeat of the aggressor, and even, although this is even less likely, with the fall of Vladimir Putin's regime. However, even then it is quite obvious that the level of mutual understanding between the two peoples - and on a wider scale, that is, between Russia and the rest of the world - is unlikely to increase noticeably.
This question often becomes a subject of debate - how many generations will it take for Ukrainians to forgive the Russians, whose army continues to kill citizens of the neighboring country and attack residential areas of Ukrainian cities to this day. But how much is there talk about how many generations it will take for Russians to ask for forgiveness?
The world through the eyes of Russians
I want to make a special note: I do not consider the sociological polls conducted in Russia today to be indicative, even if their authors are conditionally independent. These surveys were not like that before the full-scale aggression, and a book could be written about the impossibility of achieving this in a police state. Nevertheless, Russian polls, if we take into account the large intervals between them and the fear and hatred that permeate society, can be discussed as trends.
Over the past two years, the trend has been present. Since it became possible to publicly express hopes for peace, i.e. after the imitation peace talks in Ukraine initiated by Trump, about two-thirds of Russians want a peace agreement to be concluded as soon as possible. That is, there is a coincidence here too – like most Ukrainians and Europeans, they want the war to end.
However, then the fundamental differences begin. Many Russians continue to claim that they are not following the course of hostilities, are tired of the "special military operation", as Russian propaganda officially calls it, and it does not concern them at all. They live peacefully (even if they work in a military factory) and wait for Vladimir Putin, who started the war, to end it, or rather, end it. This is an extremely infantile position, since it suggests that they, in principle, have no opportunity to influence what is happening.
War without end
There is another factor that is even more significant for outside observers: again two-thirds of Russians (although not necessarily the same ones) support the actions of the Russian army and the goals of this criminal war. And more than half insist that the country is moving in the right direction.
When and if the war does end, they would clearly like Russia to keep all its conquests. And most of them do not feel guilty about anything at all, do not see the need to repent or at least apologize. It seems that they do not see why, since the infantile position allows everything to be attributed to Putin and his entourage.
Looking at the example of Afghanistan, conquered by Taliban terrorists, we can unfortunately imagine that European politicians will easily gradually restore dialogue with like-minded Russians. The European Union still does not have a clear set of requirements and a clear strategy. But how will the Ukrainians, who could not expect compassion from a new Russian government in this situation, view this? And can anything be done if this development of things is inevitable? This, unfortunately, is a question that no one is currently looking for or trying to answer.
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This comment expresses the personal opinion of the author and may not coincide with the positions of the Bulgarian editorial office and the State Gazette as a whole.