For decades, American interests dictated what was happening in the Middle East. However, the war in Gaza and the failed US intervention in Iran changed this, and Russia also lost some of its influence. Who will benefit now.
US allies have been the subject of constant attacks and provocations by Iran for months, and all countries in the region are paying the price for a war that Washington clearly cannot win. The cards are being dealt again, and the “American Middle East“ is over, as the famous political scientist and author Mark Lynch wrote in his article in “Foreign Affairs“ since August.
The balance of power is changing
For decades, American interests have dictated the dynamics in the Middle East. The United States tried to force the establishment of relations between Israel and some of its allies in the region - led by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. In contrast, Russia's allies - Assad's Syria, Iran and its proxies in other countries - stood in opposition to them.
The war in Gaza, as well as the unsuccessful intervention of the United States and Israel in Iran, changed this. At the same time, Russia lost much of its influence. In recent months, the mantra that American bases guarantee the inviolability of a number of countries in the Persian Gulf, Saudi Arabia and Jordan, has been debunked. Finally, Iran has discovered a new means of blackmailing the world and a new way to collapse American hegemony - by effectively blocking traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Turkey's appetites, which does not hide its ambitions to dominate the region, have increased.
Syria in the eye of the storm
At key moments in the civil war in Syria, which lasted over 12 years, Bashar Assad relied on Hezbollah for support. After October 7 and the Hamas terrorist attack on Israel, the militant Lebanese group lost ground, and according to experts, this contributed to the end of the Assad dynasty's rule, which lasted over 50 years. Ash Sharaa, the former leader of the Islamist group “Al Nusra“, which was declared a terrorist organization by the United States in 2012, came to power in Damascus. Thus, Turkey, which has the second largest army in NATO, has become Syria's main ally.
Israel took control of the militarized zone along the border with Syria, and today the authorities and residents of the war-torn and conflict-ridden country complain that Tel Aviv is building new bases there. Pro-Iranian militias in neighboring Lebanon and Iraq have weakened, but are far from disappearing. "We should not be forced to choose between the expansionist policies of Israel and Iran," the Syrian president said recently in an interview with "Al Jazeera."
Turkey expands its influence
Turkey is using the opportunity to secure its influence and role as a security guarantor in the Middle East. Ankara recently signed a mutual defense agreement with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. Such a move comes into serious conflict with the American plan to normalize relations with Israel, as tensions between Erdogan and the Netanyahu government have recently escalated. It also raises concerns in the United Arab Emirates, which has relied on Washington and joint work with Israel for its development, notes the German “Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung“.
Ash Sharaa does not complain about Turkey's foreign policy ambitions, which have been repeatedly described as “neo-Ottoman”, Christoph Erhard and Christian Meyer also write in FAZ. This opens the door for Ankara, which is unlikely to plan to take full control of Syria, but certainly wants a docile partner who will not object to a strengthened Turkish military presence, we read further in the publication.
An opportunity not seen in 70 years
A Middle East populated by regimes that are less inclined to follow Washington's lead in imposing unpopular policies and suppressing public opposition would likely be more stable in the long run than the one we have today, writes Mark Lynch. The current order is coming to an end, and this may be the last chance for American leaders to change course in order to retain some of their influence, he adds.
In any case, the Middle East is changing, and today new actors have the chance to gain increasing regional influence. A chance that has probably not arisen since 1956, when the Suez Crisis finally ended Britain's imperial influence. The events in Egypt then opened a vacuum. And it was precisely from this that Washington took advantage. It remains to be seen who will take advantage now.