Israel heads to the October 27 parliamentary elections without a clear favorite to form the next government, as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will try to win a new term after one of the most dramatic periods in the country's history. This is according to an extensive sociological survey and analysis by "Reuters".
The latest sociological surveys show a weakening of the ruling "Likud", but so far they do not outline a secure path to power for Netanyahu's opponents.
According to the summarized data from the surveys, the new centrist party "Yashar" of former Chief of the General Staff Gadi Eisenkot leads by about two percentage points over "Likud".
The parties defining themselves as opponents of a new Netanyahu government would receive a total of about 64 seats in the 120-member Knesset against 49 for the formations that are ready to support him.
However, this does not automatically mean a majority for an alternative government.
The anti-Netanyahu camp includes political forces with significant ideological differences - from the right wing of former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman's "Israel Our Home" through the centrists around Eisenkot to the leftist "Democrats" of Yair Golan and the Arab parties.
Some of these formations would have difficulty participating together in a governing coalition. Thus, even with a numerical majority of parties opposing Netanyahu, forming a government could prove difficult.
First elections after October 7
The vote on October 27 will be the first national elections in Israel since the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, followed by the war in Gaza and the expansion of the regional conflict that has engulfed Lebanon and Iran.
Voters will have to assess Netanyahu's leadership during a period in which Israel has endured the worst attack in its history, fought several wars and significantly changed the strategic situation in the Middle East.
Netanyahu remains the country's most experienced sitting politician. He led the Likud in 11 parliamentary elections since 1996 and has managed to return to the prime minister's post six times.
The longest-serving prime minister in Israeli history has been at the head of the government almost continuously since 2009, except for the period 2021-2022, when he was leader of the opposition.
After the 2022 elections, he returned to power with a coalition of 64 MKs, including "Likud", ultra-Orthodox and nationalist parties.
Current surveys show that this configuration no longer has the same support.
Eizenkot and Bennett challenge the center
One of the main new factors is Gadi Eisenkot - former chief of staff of the Israeli army and former member of the military cabinet after the 7 October.
His "Yashar" is currently ahead of "Likud" in the average polls.
Another serious contender is former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and his "Together" party. Bennett hails from the Israeli right, but he has already once - in 2021 - managed to lead an unusually broad coalition built primarily around the goal of removing Netanyahu from power.
This makes the upcoming vote different from a traditional left-right confrontation. One of the main issues will again be the attitude towards Netanyahu himself and the possibility of different parties participating in a coalition with him.
The trial continues
The ongoing criminal trial against the prime minister also remains above the election campaign.
Netanyahu is on trial in three separate cases, known as cases 1000, 2000 and 4000. The charges include fraud and breach of trust, and in the most serious case - case 4000 - bribery.
The prime minister denies all charges and describes the trial as politically motivated.
The trial continues and Netanyahu personally testified in court. However, the existence of charges alone does not prohibit him from participating in the elections or being a candidate for prime minister.
Israeli law makes an important distinction between a minister and a prime minister. While an ordinary minister can be forced to resign under certain criminal circumstances, the rules are different for a sitting prime minister, and the question of his removal arises upon a final conviction and after the procedures provided for in the law.
Therefore, the trial is a serious political factor in the campaign, but does not constitute an automatic legal obstacle to Netanyahu heading a government again after the elections.
Everything will depend on the 61st MK
Israel, like many democracies, does not directly elect a prime minister. After the elections, the president consults with the parties represented in parliament and assigns a mandate to the MP who, in his opinion, has the best chance of forming a government.
The support of at least 61 out of a total of 120 MPs is required.
That is why the current lead of Netanyahu's opponents does not provide a clear answer as to who will govern after October 27.
If the parties from this broad camp fail to reach an agreement among themselves, Netanyahu's coalition experience could again prove to be a significant factor. However, if his traditional allies remain significantly below 61 MPs and his opponents reach an agreement on a joint cabinet, Israel could get a new government.
A month before the elections, the sociological data show one thing above all - the fight for the next prime minister of Israel remains open, and the result will depend not only on which party receives the most votes, but on the ability of the leaders to build a majority in the highly fragmented Knesset.