He gambled and lost. On the evening of the first round of the parliamentary elections, French President Emmanuel Macron found himself in a very weakened position after the dissolution of the National Assembly, which he decided on himself. Now the head of state is preparing for a stormy end to his five-year term, with an image and fortune to rebuild.
The far-right party "National Assembly" he can hope for a relative, or even an absolute, majority. "This is a failed bet,", summarizes Adelaide Zulfikarpasik, Director General of the Be Ve A Institute for Sociological Research.
This dissolution "is one of the most reckless actions in the history of the Fifth Republic, based on the most absurd predictions", adds Vincent Martini, a political scientist at the University of Nice Cote d'Azur. and in the Higher Polytechnic School.
The head of state bet on a divided left and ranking his camp in second place after the "National Assembly", which collects more than 34 percent of the votes according to the first estimated results announced in the evening after the first round.
The left, which has formed a united front, ranks second (28-29 percent), which forces the presidential camp to concede a number of seats (in the second round - note trans.) if it wants to build a dike against the extreme right .
"This actually accelerates Macron's downfall. The consequences for him will be disastrous. He loses everything", thinks Vincent Martini.
His relative majority - 250 out of 577 seats in the current composition of the National Assembly - will melt like snow in the sun (60 seats according to the most pessimistic forecasts) and will be rearranged around other politicians, whatever the outcome of the second round on July 7.
- Legitimacy -
His former prime minister, Edouard Philippe, has already expressed displeasure, accusing him of "killing the presidential majority".
The head of state is also losing power over his camp, which is "between despair and hatred" since he took the inappropriate decision to dissolve parliament on June 9, Martini emphasizes. "We are very angry", bitterly cut a representative of the majority
This is also the end of the hyper-presidency, effective since 2017. This peculiar "seven-year mandate" ends, says a former minister.
Whether Emmanuel Macron will enter into a "cohabitation" with a "National Assembly", or will have to participate in some form of floating majority or expert government, nothing will be the same anymore.
The president will no longer be the head of the government and the majority who makes all the pronouncements and arbitrates all the decisions. The future prime minister will also have his own legitimacy.
- "Impossible Life" -
All this is happening a month before the Olympic Games, said a long-time supporter of Macron, who expressed fears of demonstrations and riots in front of the whole world.
For seven years, Macron demonstrated self-confidence and conviction in his own destiny. "He believes that you can always turn the tide of events. And that, deep down, it was created precisely for this," sums up a centrist representative.
Faced with difficulties, he will present himself as a guardian of institutions and republican values, especially if he is in direct coexistence with the leader of the far-right list Jordan Bardela, and therefore with Marine Le Pen, the leading figure in his party.
And he will try to find a place in history other than that of the president who carried out the second failed dissolution since Jacques Chirac in 1997
"He can try for a year to restore his image and again dissolve the parliament under one pretext or another in order to achieve a more favorable majority," says Mathilde Philippe-Gue, professor of public law at the University of "Lyon 3". She says this with the proviso that the dissolution of the new assembly will not be possible for the next twelve months.
Elected in 2017 and 2022 on the promise of being a bulwark against the far right, he has only one option if Bardella goes to Matignon: to make Marine Le Pen does not reach the Elysée Palace in 2027.
For one former minister who knows him well, there is no doubt: "he will make life impossible (for the opposite camp) and try to put himself in a position to name his successor.
"If the "National Assembly" fails in the next two years, (Macron) could be the man to provide France with a non-extremist president in 2027,'' says the president's longtime supporter. "It's just that the extreme right doesn't let go of power when it gets it," he adds. (BTA)
(Translation from French: Lubomir Martinov)