Oleg POSTERNAK, political scientist< /p>
On October 1, 2024 in Yerevan, the capital of the supposedly “reoriented” to the West Armenia, the meeting of the pro-Kremlin analogue of the European Union (EU) was held – the so-called Eurasian Economic Union (EEU).
The Prime Minister of the Russian Federation, Mikhail Mishustin, also arrived in Yerevan to participate in the meeting, who was personally welcomed by the Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia, Nikol Pashinyan.
Just two weeks earlier, on September 14, amid the events of the supposedly “severe deterioration” of bilateral relations along the Yerevan-Moscow line, the resumption of Russian military supplies to Armenia has been announced. All this seriously contradicts the pro-Western “line” demonstrated by the authorities in Yerevan.
“Moscow has delivered to Yerevan huge quantities of rockets for the Smerch missile system, Armenian media reports.
“Reorientation” towards the West on the part of Yerevan can hardly be called a “game of two fronts”, because it is an outright farce. In fact, Armenia has no way to turn its back on Russia, because for years its entire economy, energy, food and transport security has been totally dependent on the will of the Kremlin.
The Republic of Armenia has no intention of following the path of a final break in relations with the Russian Federation, Nikol Pashinyan admitted on September 18, 2024, quoted by the “Interfax” agency.
Strategic infrastructure - in the hands of the Kremlin
The Russian state monopoly “Gazprom” is the only supplier of blue fuel for Armenia's needs. Through its subsidiary company “Gazprom Armenia” The Kremlin de facto controls the entire gas transmission infrastructure in the Caucasian republic.
At the same time, along with Armenia's membership in the EIS, natural gas for the republic is supplied at a subsidized price, far below market rates - from only $165 per 1,000 cubic meters. It is no secret to anyone that in the event of a break with Moscow, the price of Russian gas for Yerevan will almost triple – to around $400 levels. Such a surge will automatically result in the government of Armenia being unable to meet even the minimal energy needs of the republic.
"Moscow has many ways to influence life in Armenia," reads the analysis of the authoritative American Carnegie Center. “Russia supplies more than 90% of the natural gas consumed in the republic, while “Gazprom” is also the de facto owner of the Armenian gas transport infrastructure”.
In resource-poor Armenia, domestic sources provide only 30% - 35% of energy needs. The main sources of electricity are hydroelectric power plants and nuclear power plants. But this energy infrastructure is also completely dependent on Moscow.
The following facts are available. The Armenian NPP in the city of Metsamor provides over 30% of the electricity produced in the country. However, the overall management and servicing of the nuclear power plant is carried out by the Russian state corporation "Rosatom". In December 2023, Moscow and Yerevan agreed on “implementation of measures to extend the period of joint operation” of the nuclear plant. The corresponding and all the nuclear fuel for the Armenian nuclear power plant, the required quantities of uranium, is supplied by Russia.
The situation with the Sevano-Hrazdan cascade is even more categorical - the largest complex of hydroelectric power in Armenia, representing 8 hydroelectric power plants with an installed capacity of 561.4 megawatts. Since 2003, the hydropower plants of the Armenian Cascade have been the property of CJSC "Mezhdunarodnaya Energeticheskaya Corporation", controlled by the Russian holding "Tashir".
Thus, control of Armenia's entire energy security is in the hands of the Kremlin. “Armenia's strained relations with the Russian Federation, its traditional strategic ally, may lead to consequences that go beyond the framework of the political-defense alliance, affecting the energy security of the republic,”, warns the British Institute for war & peace in December 2023
Food security and transport infrastructure
Food security is another area in Armenia over which the Kremlin has total control. In recent years, the republic has completely covered its needs in cereals at the expense of imports from Russia. Data for 2023 show that 99.9% of Armenia's wheat, flour and corn imports come from the Russian Federation. At the same time, 98% of sunflower oil is imported from Russia, according to the statistics of the Customs Service of the State Revenue Committee of the Republic of Armenia.
The situation with the transport infrastructure in Armenia is not much different. The only railway company in the republic, the monopolist operator “Yuzhno-Kavkazskaya zheleznaya doroga”, which carries out all intercity, suburban and freight transport on the territory of Armenia, is owned by the Kremlin. The Armenian railway operator is actually a subsidiary of the infrastructure monopolist “Russian State Railways” - OJSC RZD. Moscow controls not only the national railway carrier of Armenia. According to the bilateral agreement of 2008, the entire railway network of Armenia together with movable and immovable property is the property of the Russian monopolist RZD.
Russia basically holds the Armenian economy
The Russian Federation has maintained the role of Armenia's leading and largest external trading partner since the republic gained independence in August 1990. But the full-scale invasion of Putin's troops in Ukraine in February 2022 gave new impetus to economic ties between Moscow and Yerevan. Figures for 2022 show that bilateral trade between Armenia and Russia has suddenly jumped to a record $4.1 billion, a hard-to-achieve growth of 77%. The same trend continues in 2023: trade between the two countries grows by another 43% to an unprecedented $7.3 billion.
In 2024, our trade with Armenia may reach an unprecedented $16 billion, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Sergey Overchuk boasted on September 13 this year, quoted by "Sputnik".
“The summary is there – after the invasion of Ukraine, Russia further cemented its position in the economy of Armenia…”, the Eurasianet news agency commented in its analysis. According to the media, this growing dependence of Yerevan on Moscow “may significantly limit Armenia's opportunities on the geopolitical scene”.
The evaluations from the West
Considering all the levers of influence available to the Kremlin, any change in the foreign policy vector by the authorities in Yerevan is nothing more than a geopolitical spectacle.
Although the cabinet “Pashinyan” tries to demonstrate a false “distancing” from Moscow, a number of authoritative world media and organizations have repeatedly focused their attention on the impossible “reorientation” of Armenia.
Thus, in March 2023, the British magazine The Economist put Armenia in second place on the list of countries most dependent on Russia in political, defense and economic aspects.
"Armenia is too far from Europe to ever realistically aspire to join the EU," commented the German news portal Intelli News. “At the same time, Yerevan is too dependent on Moscow for goods, energy and security – it seems, Pashinyan simply has no choice”, the media stated.
“Armenia is dependent on Russia in all key sectors, including energy supplies, food imports and strategic infrastructure”, wrote the American magazine Foreign Policy in March 2024.
Similar conclusions are drawn by a number of international analytical think tanks and rating agencies. “Deep dependence creates stumbling blocks for Armenia in its quest to free itself from Moscow's influence and achieve deeper integration with the West,” says an analysis by the Jamestown Foundation. “This seems incompatible with Yerevan's ambitions for greater rapprochement with the West”, the American analytical center found.
“Armenia's economy is significantly dependent on Russia in trade and energy aspects”, Fitch announced in its official position. The world's largest credit rating agency admitted: “Fitch does not expect significant diversification of the Armenian economy in other directions outside of Russia in the foreseeable future”.
“Although Yerevan's relations with Moscow are becoming increasingly strained”, the Carnegie Center reflects, “Armenia is still heavily dependent on Russia for energy and trade, while maintaining the role of its official military ally”.
All the above facts prove the thesis that Armenia does not actually play the role of an equal ally, but is a defacto vassal of Putin's Russia. Without Moscow's support, any existence of the republic does not seem possible.
Given these facts, the reorientation of Yerevan towards the West, which openly confronts the Kremlin regime, seems like an overwhelming task for the small Caucasian republic. The final severing of Armenian-Russian bilateral ties threatens Armenia with a global collapse that would encompass the entire strategically critical infrastructure of the country.
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The author is a member of the Association of Professional Political Consultants of Ukraine