Comment by Ivailo Noizi Tsvetkov:
The quickest analysis of the reasons for Donald Trump's victory is really very simple: the domestic economy and the blow to the pockets and refrigerators of millions of Americans in the various stratifications of the middle class due to rising prices, despite supposedly falling inflation.
The rest is cheerful, Trumpist and slightly weak-minded wild populism in the style of "I will stop/expel migrants" or "Give me 24 hours and Putin's war will end". Did you notice the half-hearted "warning" to Israel, as if a mother were slapping her unruly child on the butt just to register authority? Not to mention the childishness of the "Make America Great Again" type, which sink comfortably into the mainstream mind, but mean nothing.
No, Trump will not give you anything
In our country, the celebration of Trump's victory in certain political circles has already become comical, as if their cousin had won: "Wow, now we're going to "have breakfast"... just pick up the phone."
No, Trump has no idea where Bulgaria is, so let's turn off the overheated "conservative" hotplate, because - mark my word - there will be nothing to fry on it. Trump, whom some hostile "Hollywood" psychiatrists consider a complete schizophrenic, will not give you a fish, but a small wooden rod, and very possibly. As well as the "iconoclastic" anti-European comedian Orban.
Some of the right-wing conservatives in Europe, as well as in our country, fall into the trap of the so-called confirmation bias - i.e. that mental deviation that seeks, finds and validates only its own half-baked ideas, and accordingly ignores the clear Trumpist signals that the Orange Party is stopping everyone's money, not just liberals. Why is it stopping them? Because he needs them for compensations in the American economy - enough handouts, business and low taxes above all. In this sense, our "right-wing" (with the exception of a few political minds such as Petar Moskov, Radan Kanev, Prof. Lyubo Kanov, Elisaveta Belobradova and certain parts of the PP-DB), have already realized this in one way or another.
And the rest? Borisov would give anything to take a picture with Trump again. Peevski, in turn, is already more American and more Dutch than Mark Rutte, I wouldn't be surprised if he runs for a post in NATO. The pro-Putinist forces - Radev, "Vazrazhdane" and the smaller ones like the BSP - are carefully and hypocritically greeting in the style of "report given". And in general, everyone is ridiculous in their Zhivkov-like condescension to the hegemon, let's first see what happens, it's not easy for them.
Three conclusions for Bulgaria, Europe and the world
Of course, if you are a Bulgarian from a small town or village, in whose pubs the global political debate boils down to "Trump is crazy, but how did he shake them" and "Play it again" We laugh, but I cry" by Mile Kitić", the possible implications and influences of the US presidential elections on your existence are rather reduced to absolute zero, equal to minus 273 on the political Celsius scale. Ergo, the fact that Trump became president instead of Kamala is happening on some other planet.
But there is still a relatively intellectual community in our country, including in business, which is justifiably excited. Here I will deliberately omit the programs and purely internal political aspirations of Trump and will offer both the company in the center of Samokov and the hipsters in the center of Sofia the following three slightly desperate conclusions:
- No, Russia's war against Ukraine will not stop. The idea that Trump would call Putin because they were conservative brothers is just nonsense. Trump, at best, can play with tariffs on goods from BRICS countries, but I don't believe that either, while Putin even refused to congratulate him on his victory, unlike last time;
- No, China will not take over the world, economically and in any way, and no one will push the US from the first economic place for a second. But not because Trump is some kind of magician, cursed with the touch of King Midas - i.e. everything he touches turns to gold, but because the American administration, which is to be at the helm, pursues approximately the same goals. The small difference in this case may be that Europe will have to raise security spending in NATO above the average two percent, i.e. all of us, led by France and Germany, will have to pay more in solidarity. Great Britain is a separate case, after all, they are cousins. Yes, the brave new green world will be slightly delayed, and the woke culture will probably bite its lips, but believe me, not for long, i.e. most democratic media simply go back into opposition;
No, Bulgaria will not get better, whoever becomes president of the United States.
The latter is especially important. It partly has to do with how small and insignificant we are in the eyes of the American administration - they probably think more often about Estonia or even Mali than about us. And one more thing: Our political squabbles here, to which 90% of the media time and content is devoted, have no meaning beyond our own storms in a teacup. Especially in light of the pitiful fact that everything is reduced to one thing - who and how will try to please Trump with the desperate hope that he, sooner or later, will one day get to the issue of Bulgaria. In this sense, the rosy dreams of the Trumpists in our country, including on the Macedonian issue, will remain what they are - dreams that will fade over time.
Nothing magical awaits you
No and no. Understand: no great power gets up and goes to bed thinking "Oh my God, what are we going to do in Bulgaria?" It's high time we were honest with ourselves. So only we ourselves can pull ourselves out of our current zug-zwang situation, in the style of "Baron Munchausen for his own hair". And while this is an example of the fabulous and magical, I have news - nothing magical awaits you, except for a relative oligarchic stagnation, in which, alas, we are already getting used to living.
The stagnant party will continue with the current politicians in both the eighth and ninth elections - but at some point it will stop, and from then on it is mostly work. The serious question is not to miss the moment and stay at the party for too long, instead of leaving on time. And not to fall down Alice's rabbit hole again and again - especially on the issue of the 12 billion under the Sustainability and Development Plan. Which is like an Aristotle's sentence about life in general.
Many of you are wondering whether we will simultaneously enjoy smaller freedoms and ultra-liberalism shot in the foot, or will the schizophrenic Trump try for the second time to make a socio-cultural turn that will endlessly appeal to all uniformed minds, and democracy will remain dominant? Answers on a postcard, as the English say. Or: Who knows, let's see.
And finally: Trump will fix it? Don't make me laugh. Especially in Bulgaria, nothing will change, let alone be "fixed". Our heaviest Euro-Atlantic will become even heavier, and the supposedly deterrent factor Borisov will scare the crow that it can't do without GERB.
And we will go, and we will go to elections... The political wheat has shone before us. With or without Trump. "We laugh, but I feel like crying", honestly. Mile Kitić turned out to be right. Just like her colleague Taylor Swift, who philosophically asks: "How did we end up on the floor again?"