Can a country that honors a war criminal continue its EU accession process? Ratko Mladic's funeral has shown how far Serbia has drifted away from Europe.
Ratko Mladic's state-sponsored funeral in Belgrade this week has raised a burning question in Brussels: can a country apply for EU membership while sending a convicted war criminal on his last journey with honors? For many, this event showed that the process of Serbia's accession to the Community is not just stalled, but has largely lost its political momentum.
For too long, the EU has continued to treat Serbia as a normal candidate country - despite Belgrade's continued retreat from the principles of democracy and the rule of law, Angelusze Morina of the European Council on Foreign Relations told DW. And Naim Leo Besiri of the Serbian Institute for European Affairs points out that the ruling majority in Serbia has not fulfilled any of the promises made in the reform program over the past five years.
Both experts recall that Belgrade has refused to join the EU's sanctions against Russia. They also point out that under the rule of nationalist President Aleksandar Vucic, democratic standards have deteriorated and relations with Kosovo remain tense.
Despite being sentenced to life in prison by a UN court for genocide, crimes against humanity and war crimes, Ratko Mladic was buried in Belgrade on Monday with military honors, and government officials also attended the ceremony. President Vucic did not attend, but he supported and defended the mourning ceremony.
Brussels reacted unusually strongly: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen described the footage as shocking. European Council President Antonio Costa condemned the glorification of war criminals. And Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos canceled a visit to Serbia.
Has Brussels been too lenient?
Morina and Besiri argue that this is not enough. They believe that Vucic has been given too much leeway for too long. They say he has been treated as an indispensable partner, capable of ensuring stability in the Western Balkans and keeping Serbia aligned with the West, despite his disregard for core European values.
Besiri also said that Serbian civil society has been warning Brussels for years about attacks on media freedom, the rule of law and democratic institutions. But the EU has largely turned a blind eye, he added.
Economic relations are evidence of the strong ties between the EU and Serbia. The bloc is Serbia’s largest trading partner, investor and financial donor. Politically, however, Serbia has built a close partnership with Moscow.
A frequently raised argument for maintaining relations with Serbia is based precisely on the fear that stronger pressure could push the country even more towards Russia or China.
Morina acknowledges that isolating Serbia would be dangerous, but sees other options beyond reconciliation and a complete break in relations. She argues that the EU should continue to maintain a dialogue with Serbian society, while at the same time forcing Vucic to make a clear political choice.
Besiri points out that Russia and China cannot replace the European market. According to him, Vucic is using both countries as a threat to dissuade Brussels from taking more decisive action. Both researchers believe that the Serbian president is following his strategy: to benefit from cooperation without implementing the necessary reforms.
The limits of financial pressure
However, the EU is not completely passive - it has started to apply financial pressure. For example, further payments under the "Western Balkans Growth Plan" were held up this summer due to concerns about the independence of the judiciary.
However, Besiri doubts that this will change Vučić's behavior. He argues that large-scale funding cuts would hurt the population more than the political elite. Instead, he advocates targeted measures against those responsible for the country's democratic decline and the abuse of its institutions.
Can the elections bring about change?
The early parliamentary elections on October 25 could put Vucic's model to the test. After 12 years in office, he now wants to remain the dominant political figure in Serbia by becoming the next prime minister.
Besiri says that Serbia's political opposition remains fragile and that "it is extremely difficult to win democratically in undemocratic elections."
Neither expert expects the elections to restore Serbia's institutions or fundamentally change its relationship with the EU.
Reconciliation remains a distant prospect
Reconciliation in the region seems even more distant. According to Besiri, Serbia must first acknowledge its role in the wars of the 1990s and accept the established facts about the crimes committed. Instead, narratives that portray Serbs exclusively as victims remain deeply rooted in Serbian politics, education and the media.
"What has been happening recently is actually the opposite of everything that has been built up over so many years", Morina emphasizes in this regard.
Mladic's funeral did not cause this development - it simply revealed once again how far Serbia currently is from both regional reconciliation and EU membership, the representative of the European Council on Foreign Relations also points out.