Things are getting worse for the theocratic authorities in Iran.
Their decade-long strategy of building an "Axis of Resistance" supporting militant groups and proxies across the region is falling apart. First came Israel's crushing campaign in Gaza, triggered by the October 7, 2023 attack on Israel. by the Iran-backed movement "Hamas".
This war spawned another in Lebanon, in which Israel crushed Iran's most powerful ally, ``Hezbollah,'' at a time when Israel first openly launched successful airstrikes on the territory of Iran.
And now Iran's longtime staunch ally and client in Syria, President Bashar al-Assad, is gone. At dawn on Sunday, rebel forces completed a lightning offensive, capturing the ancient capital of Damascus and destroying symbols of Assad's more than 50-year rule at the crossroads of the Middle East.
Ali Akbar Velayati, a key adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, once called Assad and Syria the "golden link in the chain of resistance in the region".
"Without the Syrian government, this chain will break and resistance to Israel and its supporters will weaken.
This circuit breaker is literal. Syria was an important geographic link that allowed Iran to transport weapons and other supplies to "Hezbollah" in Lebanon. Its loss now further weakens Hezbollah, whose powerful arsenal in southern Lebanon placed Iranian influence directly on the border of its enemy Israel.
"Iran's deterrence thinking has really been destroyed by the events in Gaza, by the events in Lebanon and certainly by the development of the situation in Syria,”, said the senior diplomat of the United Arab Emirates Anwar Gargash during the conference "Dialogue from Manama" of the International Institute for Strategic Studies in Bahrain.
Iran still has the map of its nuclear program. Although he denies this intention, he could use the potential to build weapons capabilities to exert influence in the region.
"Iran continues to be an important regional player," Gargash said. "I think we should use this moment to bond and talk about what's next.
Only a few years ago, the Islamic Republic was emerging as a rising factor throughout the Middle East. Her "Axis of Resistance" was at its zenith.
"Hezbollah" in Lebanon faced Israel. Assad appeared to have survived the Arab Spring uprising that turned into civil war. Iraqi insurgents were killing American soldiers with Iranian-developed roadside bombs. Yemen's Houthi rebels have been fighting the Saudi-led coalition in a stalemate.
Syria, at a crossroads, has played an essential role.
At the start of the Syrian civil war, when it looked like Assad might be toppled, Iran and its ally "Hezbollah" sent fighters to his support - in the name of protecting the Shiite shrines in Syria. Russia later joined in waging a campaign of earth-shattering bombing.
The campaign has regained territory, although Syria remains divided into areas under government and rebel control.
But the speed of Assad's collapse over the past week has shown how dependent he is on the support of Iran and Russia - which was crucially absent.
Russia continues to be mired in difficult years after in 2022 began a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. For Iran, international sanctions over its advancing nuclear program have crashed its economy.
For Israel, breaking Iran's regional network is a key goal, although it is wary of jihadist fighters among the rebels who toppled Assad. On Sunday, Israel moved troops into the demilitarized buffer zone with Syria next to the Israeli-held Golan Heights, in what was called a temporary security measure.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called the fall of Assad a "historic day", saying it was a "direct result of our decisive action against "Hezbollah" and Iran, Assad's main backers".
Iran's theocratic rulers have long touted their regional network to Iranians as a show of their country's power, and its collapse could reverberate at home - though there are no immediate signs of their power waning. Anger at the tens of billions of dollars Iran is believed to have spent to support Assad has been a rallying point in the rounds of nationwide anti-government protests that have erupted in recent years, most recently in 2022.
The loss of Syria does not mean the end of Iran's ability to exert powerful influence in the Middle East. The Houthi rebels have continued to carry out attacks against Israel and against ships moving through the Red Sea, although the pace of their attacks has dropped with no clear explanation from their leadership.
Iran also continues to pursue its nuclear program. Although it insists it is enriching uranium for peaceful purposes, Western intelligence agencies and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) claim that by 2003 Iran had an organized nuclear weapons program.
The head of the IAEA also warned on Friday that Iran was ready "quite dramatically” to increase its stockpile of near-nuclear-grade enriched uranium as it began using cascades of advanced centrifuges.
"If Iran develops nuclear weapons, it will be a major blow to the international non-proliferation regime," Thanos Dokos said in Bahrain. national security adviser of Greece.
The risk of wider attacks in the region, particularly against oil infrastructure, remains. An attack in 2019, initially claimed by the Houthis but later judged by experts to have been carried out by Iran, temporarily halved Saudi oil production.
"If, as a result of the escalation, there are attacks on the energy infrastructure of Iran or Saudi Arabia, it will be bad news for global oil supplies," Dokos warned.
Whatever happens next, Iran will have to make a decision considering the problems it faces both at home and abroad.
"While stability is a difficult commodity to export, instability can spread very quickly, which is why stability in the Middle East is very important to all of us," Dokos noted.
translation: Plamen Yotinski, BTA