Yulian Popov to FACTI: While the heat and fires last, we must also prepare for floods

Heat waves in Europe are becoming more frequent, and their effect is intensifying. Extreme temperatures also have a significant impact on the economy and security of Europe. We have entered the fire season… Former Minister of the Environment and Water Yulian Popov speaks to FACTI.

- Mr. Popov, we are already actively in the fire season. Do we learn lessons from year to year, or does life go on with the idea “it won't affect me“?
- No, we don't learn lessons. We react to crises as they come. We are changing slowly, and we need to act both quickly and strategically. And this is a difficult combination. Bulgaria has a climate adaptation strategy, but it, and many other measures, must lead to concrete measures on the ground.

- A large fire destroyed houses in Arbanasi near Veliko Tarnovo, there is a large fire near Kostinbrod. “It won't affect me either“ doesn't apply, does it?
- Unfortunately, it does. Fires, drought and heat, as well as floods, lead to heavy losses that directly or indirectly affect everyone. That is why everyone must be well aware of the risks, the necessary measures and be truly engaged. The media and state institutions have a huge role to play in providing this information.

- Hot weather, dry land, dry grass - is this the perfect recipe for a fire?
- Part of the recipe. It becomes perfect when you add poorly maintained terrain, weak institutional preparation and the one who will scratch the match. A huge part of the fires are caused by carelessness or deliberate arson.

- Europe is gripped by a severe heat wave and a deepening drought. In Spain and Portugal, thermometers have passed 46 degrees, in France temperatures do not drop below 40, and the air does not cool down at night. Are we adapting to this warm weather?
- We are partially adapting. We buy air conditioners, wear light clothes, we pay more and more attention to the energy efficiency of buildings. However, we need to do much more. Afforestation of cities, green roofs, green lawns with adequate drought-resistant grasses, appropriate coloring are just some of the things that we need to move forward quickly. Water management, which has been largely neglected in our country, is very important. Some municipalities are finally starting to talk about the natural restoration of urban rivers and water bodies. This is an important step. Removing concrete beds and invasive vegetation and returning rivers to as natural a state as possible should be a priority for municipalities.

- In recent years, heat waves have claimed thousands of lives in the EU, and the heat is becoming more intense and longer lasting. Climate change is here, but do we people understand it?
- The highly respected London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine has estimated that the current heat wave is the likely cause of the deaths of 2,300 people in 12 European cities within 10 days, with 65% of these deaths attributable to climate change.
It is time for health authorities to integrate climate into their policies and activities. Premature deaths as a result of heat waves number in the thousands and tens of thousands in Europe. These deaths are largely a health issue. I rarely hear health ministers in our country talking about climate. (Hristo Hinkov was an exception to this rule.) Expert communication is very important in order to reduce the risk of death and serious illnesses. Handing out water bottles when the temperature reaches 40 degrees is touching populism, but it is better to fix city fountains better, and for central and local authorities to have clear and detailed protocols for action in high temperatures.

- Water supplies are decreasing, rivers are shrinking, and do we only report this as a statistic?
- Not only that. People see the dried-up rivers, they worry, but they rarely know what to do. Let me say again that proper afforestation and natural restoration of rivers is important. We have abandoned the water resource of the Danube River, and it makes up 83% of the country's water supply. 40 years ago, Northern Bulgaria was irrigated by the Danube, now the irrigation systems are destroyed. The refusal of the Danube waters also has a systemic effect. The soil is drying up, the microclimate is changing, the groundwater is decreasing. Bulgaria has practically destroyed about 90% of its lake areas, which are mainly along the Black Sea coast. We must pay serious attention to this outrageous fact.

- Leading insurers predict that the heat wave could reduce the EU's GDP by 0.5% this year. Is anyone in our country thinking about this?
- Insurers think. Otherwise - no. The absence of insurance companies from combating climate change is a serious problem. The state cannot pay for every flood. It is neither competent enough, nor does it have enough money, nor does it have the control tools of the insurance business. It is time to learn to insure our properties, and for insurers to take on their usual control and information function. A policy for educating agricultural producers is also needed, as well as new standards for building infrastructure.

- Experts say that food and energy security are under threat. What awaits us?
- In recent years, the world has witnessed a sharp increase in the price of food products, largely caused by extreme weather conditions in key agricultural regions. In the USA, where California provides over 40% of vegetable production, the severe drought in 2022 led to an 80% annual jump in vegetable prices by November of that year. In Europe, droughts in southern Spain – producer of over 40% of the world’s olive oil – have caused a further 50% price increase by January 2024, building on previous increases. The effects are not limited to individual markets: globally, cocoa prices have tripled by April 2024, following record heatwaves in Ghana and Ivory Coast – countries that together produce nearly 60% of the world’s cocoa. Similar increases have been seen for coffee following droughts and heatwaves in Vietnam and Brazil. These disruptions in international markets are causing difficulties for suppliers and sharp price increases for consumers far beyond the affected regions. We can expect further price increases in the coming years.
High temperatures last year were a major factor in the global increase in electricity consumption. At the same time, droughts are putting stress on hydropower. But the growth of solar and wind power, as well as industrial batteries, is balancing these stresses. In all cases, serious long-term planning and implementation of measures to offset the impacts on energy and countries is needed. Modern technologies give us many opportunities to address the climate crisis, but we must act quickly, smartly and with commitment.