The premier of the German state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Manuela Schwesig, has turned the final days of the election campaign into a direct political clash with the “Alternative for Germany“ (AfD). At a closing rally of the Social Democrats in Warnemünde, she presented the elections on September 20 as a choice between continuing the current government and significantly strengthening the positions of the AfD.
Schwesig's campaign is intensifying at a time when the gap between the two parties is narrowing significantly. According to various recent polls, the AfD and the SPD are within a few percentage points of each other. WELT notes that in one of the latest surveys, the Social Democrats even come out with a small lead, while other measurements give the AfD an advantage. This makes the final result difficult to predict based on the poll data alone.
Schweiz has governed Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania since 2017. After the 2021 elections, when the SPD received 39.6%, she headed a coalition with the Left. The political picture has now changed significantly: the AfD, which then received 16.7 percent, is hovering around the mid-to-upper 30 percent in recent polls, while the Social Democrats are trying to regain lost support after weaker results earlier in the year.
The SPD's campaign finale in Warnemünde was also supported by four other Social Democratic premiers. Schwesig's strategy is to personalize the clash and present himself as the main alternative to AfD candidate Leif-Erik Holm. According to WELT, some of the other parties warn that such a focus on the SPD-AfD duel could push smaller parties out of the public eye.
Holm is running a more restrained campaign than some other AfD representatives and has avoided some of the most confrontational rhetoric characteristic of the party at the national level, Reuters notes. This is part of his strategy to expand support beyond the AfD's core electorate.
Among the leading issues in the election campaign are the high cost of living, fuel prices, the shortage of medical personnel, the economic development of the province and the attitude towards Russia. Energy policy is particularly important in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania because of the long-standing dispute over the “Nord Stream 2” pipeline, which has already sparked heated exchanges between Schwesig and Holm during television and public debates.
The election also has implications far beyond the state's borders. Chancellor Friedrich Merz's CDU is in a particularly difficult position, with some recent polls putting it at around 7%. That is significantly below the 13.3% result in 2021 and puts the party close to the threshold needed to secure representation in parliament.
Reuters notes that the result could increase political pressure on Merz, especially after the AfD's strong showing in other eastern German states. The chancellor himself is already under criticism for the economic situation, the cost of living and internal disputes within the CDU.
Even if the AfD becomes the strongest party, this in itself does not automatically mean participation in the government. The other main parties have so far ruled out a coalition with it, and according to current polls, the AfD does not reach a majority on its own. Therefore, the decisive question after the elections may not only be who will be first, but which parties will pass the 5 percent barrier and what parliamentary arithmetic will emerge.
The fate of the Greens, which in some surveys are around 5-6 percent, is particularly important. If they remain in parliament, a combination of the SPD, the Left and the Greens could gain a majority, according to some current polls. The BSW is also hovering around the election threshold and its possible entry would further complicate the coalition calculations.
The vote in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern will be held on September 20, 2026. Voters will determine the new 79-member state parliament, with 19 parties participating in the vote.