Europe could face a deficit of aviation fuel of about 510,000 barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2026 despite increasing imports from more distant suppliers, including South Korea, according to forecasts by the consulting company „Energy Aspects“, quoted by Reuters, BTA reported.
European buyers have increased imports of aviation fuel from countries such as Nigeria, the United States and Canada since the start of the war with Iran more than six months ago, which disrupted supplies from the Middle East and cut off about half of European imports of this type of fuel.
According to „Energy Aspects“ The expected deficit in Europe in the fourth quarter contrasts with a projected surplus of 18,000 barrels per day in the United States and 419,000 barrels per day in the Asia-Pacific region. The picture was similar in the third quarter.
South Korea became one of the major new sources of aviation fuel for Europe in September. According to data from the analytical company “Kepler“ (Kpler), supplies from the country to the European market since the beginning of the month have reached about 129,000 barrels per day – the highest level since October 2022. London Stock Exchange (LSEG) data showed similar volumes.
“With Europe expected to remain short of jet fuel, imports are likely to continue,“ said James Noel-Beswick, head of raw materials at Sparta Commodities.
Jet fuel is part of the middle distillate group, which also includes diesel and gas oil. European diesel prices hit a record high last week and remain above those in Asia. The widening price gap between the two regions is making deliveries from Asia to Europe more profitable, Noel-Beswick said.
The increased imports from South Korea coincide with low European stocks. Separately, jet fuel stocks in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp oil and storage hub fell to a seven-year low in the week to Sept. 10.
Asia has traditionally acted as a flexible supplier to Europe when price differentials between the two regions make trade profitable. Average monthly exports from South Korea to Europe last year were about 1.5 million barrels, according to data from Kepler.
South Korea's jet fuel output in July reached nearly 13.89 million barrels - the highest in seven years - and exports rose to a three-and-a-half-year high, government data showed. The country's crude oil processing reached 2.7 million barrels per day in July, up 16 percent from June.
The current forecast shows that Europe's dependence on jet fuel imports from North America, Africa and Asia is likely to remain high in the final months of the year, while supplies from the Middle East remain disrupted.