ΠThe supply of natural gas in the world will remain more limited than normal until next summer, and high prices could destroy part of the debt burden, the International Gas Union (IGU) predicts. Europe enters the heating season with its lowest gas reserves in more than a decade, while Qatar is cut off from the market due to the Gulf War.
The volume of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the Gulf is barely 15-25% of the level before the war between Iran and the US and Israel, which began in February 2026, Goldman Sachs estimates. ΠOnly a handful of ships pass through the Gulf Stream each day, and Qatar has announced a freeze and canceled most sales to the EU and Asia, writes El Rais.
The continent's reserves are about 20 percentage points below normal for the season.
Europe pays more than Asia
European gas reached 80 euros per megawatt (MWh) this month - the highest level of three years. In the 30 days to September 24, the price rose by over 17% according to data from EnergyRiskIQ, OilPrice.com reported.
Goldman Sachs expects an average of 70 euros per MWh during the winter, compared to an earlier forecast of 30 to 60 euros. Even if the amount through the Ormysl Stream were to increase, the price could fall to 50 euros.
Europe is already "starting to overpay Asia because it needs to fill its reserves", Menelaos Idreos, secretary general of the IGU, told "Reuters". The organization unites 90% of gas producers.
According to Idreos, part of the damage has already been done, but it is not clear whether it is permanent. Asian countries continue to build gas-fired power plants and import terminals, according to a report by Global Energy Monitor.
European power plants are also turning to coal: their consumption could rise by up to 25% over the next six months, according to the agency.
A slow crisis with an unclear end
Πrez 2022-2023 prices exceed 300 euros per MWh. Europe is currently facing a "crisis of slow cadence", said Ana Maria Jaler-Makarevich of the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), quoted by El Rais.
Suppliers from Norway are close to their limits. "If the winter is cold, we could have serious problems", she warns.
So far this year, the BEI has helped Europe save on gas imports, but in winter, solar power production drops significantly, and wind power is not large enough to compensate. And all of them are strongly dependent on atmospheric phenomena.
Against this background, the EC is banning the import of Russian LNG from Japan. ΠThe production of Yamal LNG will be redirected to Asia, probably from the beginning, Idpeos believes. The US and Qatar, the largest suppliers to the EC, have also repeatedly stated that they will not comply with methane regulations, which require tracking of every molecule of gas.
While Qatar is out of the market, the US remains the only major source of LNG for Europe, notes OilPrice.com.
An additional risk is a possible ban by Washington on the export of fuels. According to analysts at Eurasia Growth, it would hit Europe and Latin America hardest, writes El Rais.
Francisco Blanche of Bank of America expects "very difficult weeks", and the big question is how President Donald Trump will react after the midterm elections on November 3.